Tadini A. auteur aut IRD Harris A. auteur aut IRD Morin J. auteur aut IRD Bevilacqua A. auteur aut IRD Peltier A. auteur aut IRD Aspinall W. auteur aut IRD Ciolli S. auteur aut IRD Bachèlery P. auteur aut IRD Bernard B. auteur aut IRD Biren J. auteur aut IRD Brum da Silveira A. auteur aut IRD Cayol V. auteur aut IRD Chevrel Magdalena Oryaelle auteur aut IRD Coppola D. auteur aut IRD Dietterich H. auteur aut IRD Donovan A. auteur aut IRD Dorado O. auteur aut IRD Drenne S. auteur aut IRD Dupéré O. auteur aut IRD Gurioli L. auteur aut IRD Kolzenburg S. auteur aut IRD Komorowski J.C. auteur aut IRD Labazuy P. auteur aut IRD Mangione D. auteur aut IRD Mannini S. auteur aut IRD Martel-Asselin F. auteur aut IRD Médard E. auteur aut IRD Pialot-Bonnétat S. auteur aut IRD Rafflin V. auteur aut IRD Ramsey M. auteur aut IRD Richter N. auteur aut IRD Vallejo S. auteur aut IRD Villeneuve N. auteur aut IRD Zafrilla S. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an 'uncommon' eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures. specialized REUNION 064 5 1 105-131 2022 2610-3540 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010088392 10.30909/vol.05.01.105131 2610-3540 [F B010088392] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010088392 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/2023-08/010088392.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2023-07-18 2025-02-24 fdi:010088392 fre