@article{fdi:010088175,
  title = {{A}ssessing the risk of {W}est {N}ile {V}irus seasonal outbreaks and its vector control in an urbanizing bird community : an integrative {R}-0-modelling study in the city of {M}erida, {M}exico},
  author = {{F}lores-{F}errer, {A}. and {S}uzan, {G}. and {W}aleckx, {E}tienne and {G}ourbiere, {S}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{U}rbanization is a global trend associated with key socio-economic issues, one of them being to control the transmission of infectious diseases to a urban fraction of the world's population that shall reach 68% in 2050. {W}hile urban growth has been shown to favor mosquito species responsible for the transmission of the {W}est {N}ile {V}irus ({WNV}), a major human arbovirosis, the effects of concomitant changes in the host bird communities remain hard to anticipate albeit essential to quantify disease risk and to plan control initiatives. {W}e developed a {R}0 modelling of {WNV} transmission in a urban bird community to assess the risk of outbreak in {M}erida, one of the cities with the highest growth rate in {M}exico. {T}he model was parameterized using ecological and epidemiological data collected over the past 15-years on the local vector, {C}ulex quinquefasciatus, and avian community. {W}e identified a 3-weeks summer period during which the vector population strongly amplifies the {WNV} enzootic transmission and lead to a significant risk of outbreaks in humans. {E}xtensive sensitivity analyses showed that urbanization induced changes in the bird community could lead to an up-to 6-fold increase in the duration of the risk period, while the daily risk could rise by 40%. {I}nterestingly, the increase in {Q}uiscalus mexicanus abundance had 4-5 times larger impact than any other change in the bird community. {I}n such a context, annihilating the current and future risk of {WNV} outbreaks in {M}erida requires reducing the mosquito population by 13% and up to 56%, respectively. {T}his study provides an integrative assessment of the current and future risks of {WNV} outbreak in the fast urbanizing city of {M}erida, and points toward the implementation of epidemiological monitoring combined with preemptive measures targeting both {C}. quinquefasciatus and {Q}. mexicanus populations, as they are expected to have synergistic effects. {A}uthor summary{U}rbanization is a major trend in human evolution. {B}y 2050, over 2/3 of the world population will live in urban areas. {A} key challenge associated with such a global trend is to protect urban residents against infectious diseases, while their environment may provide favourable conditions for parasites and other pathogens. {T}he {W}est {N}ile {V}irus ({WNV}) is a typical vector borne pathogen whose transmission to human is expected to be facilitated in urban environments, where mosquitoes transmitting the virus are favored. {H}ere, we looked at the barely known effects of changes in the host bird community on the risk of {WNV} outbreak in humans. {B}y designing empiricaly informed mathematical models of {WNV} transmission in the city of {M}erida, {M}exico, we identified a 3-weeks summer period during which the virus circulation in urban birds lead to a risk of outbreaks in humans. {F}urther analyses showed that changes in the bird community could increase the risk period up-to 6-fold and rise the daily risk by 40%. {S}uch variations are primarily driven by the increase in a key reservoir species, {Q}uiscalus mexicanus, whose effects are 4-5 times larger than those of other changes in the bird community. {T}o control the current and future risks of {WNV} outbreaks in {M}erida requires reducing the mosquito population by 13% and up to 56%, respectively. {T}hese results strongly call for an epidemiological monitoring and preemptive measures targeting both {C}. quinquefasciatus and {Q}. mexicanus populations, as they are expected to have synergistic effects.},
  keywords = {{MEXIQUE} ; {MERIDA}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{PL}o{S} {N}eglected {T}ropical {D}iseases},
  volume = {17},
  numero = {5},
  pages = {e0011340 [21 p.]},
  ISSN = {1935-2735},
  year = {2023},
  DOI = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0011340},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010088175},
}