@article{fdi:010087784,
  title = {{F}uture socioeconomic development along the {W}est {A}frican coast forms a larger hazard than sea level rise},
  author = {{D}ada, {O}. {A}. and {A}lmar, {R}afa{\¨e}l and {M}orand, {P}ierre and {B}ergsma, {E}. {W}. {J}. and {A}ngnuureng, {D}. {B}. and {M}inderhoud, {P}. {S}. {J}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{W}hile flood risk in coastal {W}est {A}frica will be dominated by sea level rise for the first half of the 21st century, socioeconomic development will control flood risk during the second half, according to numerical modelling coupled with population and asset exposure estimates {S}ea level rise will exacerbate the vulnerability of low-lying coastal regions around the world in the coming decades, posing a severe threat to coastal populations. {H}ere, we assess the future population and asset exposure of {W}est {A}frica ({WA}) to normal and extreme coastal flooding based on the projected sea level rise scenarios reported in the {IPCC} {S}ixth {A}ssessment {R}eport using a bathtub modeling approach, {MERIT} {DEM} and gridded population gross domestic product datasets that are consistent with the {S}hared {S}ocioeconomic {P}athways. {W}e find that socioeconomic development will be responsible for the maximum increase in future coastal flooding along the {WA} coast towards the end of the century. {W}hile contributions from climate-induced sea level rise will dominate and be responsible for changes in coastal flooding events in some countries, exposure to these events is likely to dominate in many countries if the ongoing horizontal infrastructural development and economic-oriented transformation continue. {T}hese results have important implications for both sustainable coastal planning and flooding risk mitigation for {WA}'s coastal areas and should be considered as a cautionary tale for managing increasing socioeconomic development and coastward migration at the expense of the region's coastal ecosystems.},
  keywords = {{M}auritanie ; {S}enegal ; {G}ambie ; {G}uinee ; {S}ierra {L}eone ; {L}iberia ; {C}ote d'{I}voire ; {G}hana ; {T}ogo ; {B}enin ; {N}igeria ; {GUINEE} {BISSAU}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}ommunications {E}arth and {E}nvironment},
  volume = {4},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {150 [12 ]},
  year = {2023},
  DOI = {10.1038/s43247-023-00807-4},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010087784},
}