@article{fdi:010087771,
  title = {{I}ntermodel spread of historical indian monsoon rainfall change in {CMIP}6 : the role of the {T}ropical {P}acific mean state},
  author = {{G}uilbert, {M}. and {T}erray, {P}ascal and {M}ignot, {J}uliette},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{R}obust projections of the {I}ndian summer monsoon rainfall ({ISMR}) are critical as it provides 80% of the annual precipitation to more than 1 billion people who are very vulnerable to climate change. {H}owever, even over the his-torical period, state-of-the-art climate models have difficulties in reproducing the observed {ISMR} trends and are affected by a large intermodel spread, which questions the reliability of {ISMR} projections. {S}uch uncertainty could come from inter-nal variability or model biases. {H}ere, we study the impact of the latter on the historical forced change of {ISMR} in 34 mod-els from {CMIP}6. {F}irst, we show that models' biases over {I}ndia do not significantly impact how they simulate the historical change of {ISMR}. {H}owever, we do find statistically significant relationships between {ISMR} historical forced changes and remote rainfall and temperature biases within the tropics by using a maximum covariance analysis ({MCA}). {O}ur results highlight the key role of tropical {P}acific sea surface temperature ({SST}) mean state biases as an important source of inter -model spread in the {ISMR} change. {T}he physical mechanisms underlying these statistical relationships between {ISMR} change and the intermodel spread of {P}acific {SST} biases are finally explored. {W}e found that models having {E}l {N}ino/ {L}a {N}ina-like mean {SST} bias in the {P}acific tend to exhibit {E}l {N}ino/{L}a {N}ina-like changes over the historical period, impacting {ISMR} through a shift in the {W}alker circulation and {R}ossby wave propagation across the {P}acific.},
  keywords = {{M}onsoons ; {C}limate change ; {ENSO} ; {INDE} ; {PACIFIQUE} ; {ZONE} {TROPICALE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {C}limate},
  volume = {36},
  numero = {12},
  pages = {3937--3953},
  ISSN = {0894-8755},
  year = {2023},
  DOI = {10.1175/jcli-d-22-0585.1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010087771},
}