@article{fdi:010087654,
  title = {{P}redicting the effects of climate change on dengue vector densities in {S}outheast {A}sia through process-based modeling},
  author = {{B}onnin, {L}. and {T}ran, {A}. and {H}erbreteau, {V}incent and {M}arcombe, {S}. and {B}oyer, {S}. and {M}angeas, {M}organ and {M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{BACKGROUND}: {A}edes aegypti and {A}e. albopictus mosquitoes are major vectors for several human diseases of global importance, such as dengue and yellow fever. {T}heir life cycles and hosted arboviruses are climate sensitive and thus expected to be impacted by climate change. {M}ost studies investi-gating climate change impacts on {A}edes at global or continental scales focused on their future global distribution changes, whereas a single study focused on its effects on {A}e. aegypti densities regionally. {OBJECTIVES}: {A} process-based approach was used to model densities of {A}e. aegypti and {A}e. albopictus and their potential evolution with climate change using a panel of nine {CMIP}6 climate models and climate scenarios ranging from strong to low mitigation measures at the {S}outheast {A}sian scale and for the next 80 y.{METHODS}: {T}he process-based model described, through a system of ordinary differential equations, the variations of mosquito densities in 10 com-partments, corresponding to 10 different stages of mosquito life cycle, in response to temperature and precipitation variations. {L}ocal field data were used to validate model outputs. {RESULTS}: {W}e show that both species densities will globally increase due to future temperature increases. {I}n {S}outheast {A}sia by the end of the century, {A}e. aegypti densities are expected to increase from 25% with climate mitigation measures to 46% without; {A}e. albopictus densities are expected to increase from 13%-21%, respectively. {H}owever, we find spatially contrasted responses at the seasonal scales with a significant decrease in {A}e. albopictus densities in lowlands during summer in the future. {DISCUSSION}: {T}hese results contrast with previous results, which brings new insight on the future impacts of climate change on {A}edes densities. {M}ajor sources of uncertainties, such as mosquito model parametrization and climate model uncertainties, were addressed to explore the limits of such modeling.},
  keywords = {{MYANMAR} ; {LAOS} ; {THAILANDE} ; {CAMBODGE} ; {VIET} {NAM}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}nvironmental {H}ealth {P}erspectives},
  volume = {130},
  numero = {12},
  pages = {127002 [13 p.]},
  ISSN = {0091-6765},
  year = {2022},
  DOI = {10.1289/ehp11068},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010087654},
}