%0 Journal Article
%9 ACL : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture répertoriées par l'AERES
%A Regnier, Baptiste
%A Legrand, J.
%A Calatayud, Paul-André
%A Rebaudo, François
%T Developmental differentiations of major maize stemborers due to global warming in temperate and tropical climates
%D 2023
%L fdi:010086847
%G ENG
%J Insects
%K development ; modeling ; insects ; climate change ; maize stemborers ; pest management
%K ZONE TEMPEREE ; ZONE TROPICALE
%M ISI:000915524400001
%N 1
%P 51 [20 ]
%R 10.3390/insects14010051
%U https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010086847
%> https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/2023-03/010086847.pdf
%V 14
%W Horizon (IRD)
%X Simple Summary Crop pest damage is expected to increase worldwide due to global warming. However, pest insect responses to global warming are complex, and a better understanding of the impacts of future temperature changes on pest insect populations is needed to ensure food security. Maize is a particularly important crop at all latitudes, making assessment of the impact of global warming on the development of maize stemborers in temperate and tropical climates critical. Stemborers are moths whose larvae feed on maize and tunnel through stems and ears, causing direct and indirect yield losses. We used mathematical models that relate the development of insects to temperature for four species found in Europe, North America, and sub-Saharan Africa. We quantified the positive and negative impacts of temperature projected under different climate change scenarios on the immature developmental stages of the four species. We found that global warming could either be beneficial or detrimental to pest development, depending on the optimal temperature for the development of the species and climate change scenarios. These results, within their limits, help to clarify stemborers' responses to global warming across latitudes, and show that in the long term, the development of stemborers could be altered. This alteration will result either in delayed development or accelerated development, and may consequently impact stemborer dynamics. While many insects are in decline due to global warming, the effect of rising temperatures on crop insect pests is uncertain. A capacity to understand future changes in crop pest populations remains critical to ensure food security. Using temperature-dependent mathematical models of the development of four maize stemborers in temperate and tropical regions, we evaluated the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on development time. While recognizing the limitations of the temperature-dependent development rate approach, we found that global warming could either be beneficial or detrimental to pest development, depending on the optimal temperature for the development of the species and scenarios of climate change. Expected responses range from null development to 1.5 times faster development than expected today. These results suggest that in the medium term, the studied species could benefit from global warming with an accelerated development, while in the long term, their development could either be delayed or accelerated, which may impact their dynamics with implications on maize cultivation.
%$ 076 ; 080 ; 021 ; 020