@article{fdi:010086844,
  title = {{W}eather regimes and rainfall over {T}unisia in a multi-model ensemble versus a multi-member ensemble},
  author = {{F}athalli, {B}. and {P}ohl, {B}. and {Q}uintana-{S}egui, {P}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {U}llmann, {A}. and {C}astel, {T}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}his study aims at investigating for the first time the links of daily rainfall over {T}unisia to large-scale atmospheric conditions by establishing a weather regime ({WR}) classification over a {N}orth {A}frican-{M}editerranean domain mostly encompassing {N}orth {A}frica. {S}even {WR}s are identified in the year-round {ERA}-{I}nterim ({ERA}-{I}) {M}ean {S}ea {L}evel {P}ressure field spanning 1992-2011. {T}his classification then served as reference to determine {WR}s in a {WRF} 10-member ensemble and a regional climate simulations ensemble from {E}uro-{C}ordex all driven by {ERA}-{I}. {C}apabilities of both ensemble simulations in reproducing the {ERA}-{I} {WR}s main characteristics, and in reproducing the main features of observed rainfall over {T}unisia from a high-resolution local observational dataset and two satellite-gauge merged rainfall products are evaluated for each {WR}. {T}he models best reproduced the {ERA}-{I} two wintertime {NAO}-like {WR}s ({WR}1 and {WR}3). {B}etter performances of the {WRF} ensemble and larger spread within the {E}uro-{C}ordex models are overall obtained in all {WR}s. {W}et and extremely wet conditions are mainly observed north of {T}unisia and seem to be primarily driven by {WR}5 and {WR}3 (partly by {WR}7) featuring strong negative {MSLP} anomalies and anomalous cyclonic circulation impacting {T}unisia. {O}pposite atmospheric conditions associated with anomalously dry conditions however prevailing all over the country are particularly observed during {WR}1. {I}ntensity and sign of the simulated rainfall errors over {T}unisia, as well as the model uncertainties, as qualified by the {S}ignal-to-{N}oise ratio, are regime-dependent. {T}he highest (lowest) annual and {DJF} model errors among the two ensembles are frequently obtained during {WR}1 ({WR}3 and {WR}7) and are discussed with regard to the weakening (strengthening) of the lateral forcing's magnitude over {T}unisia. {M}odel uncertainties are lower in {DJF} than in {JJA}. {L}ateral and orographic forcings restricting inter-member or inter-model spread are mostly associated with {WR}3 and {WR}5 in winter. {I}nternal variability of the simulated rainfall field within the {WRF} ensemble is however persistently smaller than the inter-model spread for all {WR}s and for all considered timescales.},
  keywords = {{R}ainfall ; {T}unisia ; {W}eather regimes ; {WRF} ensemble ; {E}uro-{C}ordex ; {TUNISIE} ; {AFRIQUE} {DU} {NORD} ; {ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {[{E}arly access]},
  numero = {},
  pages = {[31 ]},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2023},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-022-06656-9},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010086844},
}