%0 Journal Article
%9 ACL : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture répertoriées par l'AERES
%A Guillotreau, Patrice
%A Lantz, F.
%A Nadzon, L.
%A Rault, Jonathan
%A Maury, Olivier
%T Price transmission between energy and fish markets : are oil rates good predictors of tuna prices ?
%D 2023
%L fdi:010086753
%G ENG
%J Marine Resource Economics
%@ 0738-1360
%K Cointegration ; oil and tuna markets ; regime shift ; structural breaks
%K MONDE
%M ISI:000899603100001
%N 1
%P 29-46
%R 10.1086/722490
%U https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010086753
%> https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2023-02/010086753.pdf
%V 38
%W Horizon (IRD)
%X Because most food processes are fossil fuel-based, many food markets are more or less connected to the oil market. Fishing technology in the high seas being energy-intensive, higher oil prices should affect the fish markets. This research looks at price transmission between marine diesel oil and a global fishery commodity, frozen skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) through a time series analysis combining four different methods to look for possible structural breaks and regime shifts in the relationship (Bai-Perron, Lavielle, Gregory-Hansen, Markov-switching). Our results prove that the long-run equilibrium between both prices is weakening after the turn of the 2010s. Explaining the drivers of change is of great interest for short-term forecast but also to build long-term scenarios where both supply and demand variables are likely to affect tuna markets.
%$ 040 ; 096