Ariza A. auteur aut IRD Lengaigne Matthieu auteur aut IRD Menkès Christophe auteur aut IRD Lebourges Dhaussy Anne auteur aut IRD Receveur A. auteur aut IRD Gorgues Thomas auteur aut IRD Habasque Jérémie auteur aut IRD Gutierrez M. auteur aut IRD Maury Olivier auteur aut IRD Bertrand Arnaud auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access Pelagic fauna is expected to be impacted under climate change according to ecosystem simulations. However, the direction and magnitude of the impact is still uncertain and still not corroborated by observation-based statistical studies. Here we compile a global underwater sonar database and 20 ocean climate projections to predict the future distribution of sound-scattering fauna around the world's oceans. We show that global pelagic fauna will be seriously compromised by the end of the twenty-first century if we continue under the current greenhouse emission scenario. Low and mid latitudes are expected to lose from 3% to 22% of animal biomass due to the expansion of low-productive systems, while higher latitudes would be populated by present-day temperate fauna, supporting results from ecosystem simulations. We further show that strong mitigation measures to contain global warming below 2 degrees C would reduce these impacts to less than half. specialized MONDE 021 034 036 020 12 10 928-934 + 15 2022 1758-678X https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010086341 10.1038/s41558-022-01479-2 1758-678X [F B010086341] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010086341 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2022-11/010086341.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2022-11-09 2025-02-24 fdi:010086341 fre