@article{fdi:010086320, title = {{W}estern and {C}entral {T}ropical {P}acific rainfall response to climate change : sensitivity to projected sea surface temperature patterns}, author = {{D}utheil, {C}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {V}ialard, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me and {J}ullien, {S}. and {M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe}, editor = {}, language = {{ENG}}, abstract = {{R}ainfall projections from the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject ({CMIP}) models are strongly tied to projected sea surface temperature ({SST}) spatial patterns through the "warmer-gets-wetter" mechanism. {W}hile these models consistently project an enhanced equatorial warming, they, however, indicate much more uncertain changes in zonal {SST} gradients. {T}hat translates into large uncertainties on rainfall projections. {H}ere, we force an atmospheric model with synthetic {SST}s whose zonal {SST} gradient changes span the range of {CMIP}5 uncertainties in the presence and in the absence of the robust equatorially enhanced warming. {O}ur results confirm that projected rainfall changes are dominated by the effect of circulation changes, which are tied to {SST} through the "warmer-gets-wetter" mechanism. {W}e show that {SPCZ} rainfall changes are entirely driven by the uncertain zonal {SST} gradient changes. {T}he western equatorial {P}acific rainfall increase is largely controlled by the robust enhanced equatorial warming for modest zonal {SST} gradient changes. {H}owever, for larger values, the effect of the zonal {SST} gradient change on rainfall projections becomes dominant due to nonlinear interactions with the enhanced equatorial warming. {O}verall, our study demonstrates that uncertainties in the zonal {SST} gradient changes strongly contribute to uncertainties in rainfall projections over both the {S}outh {P}acific convergence zone and western equatorial {P}acific. {I}t is thus critical to reduce these uncertainties to produce more robust precipitation estimates.}, keywords = {{P}recipitation ; {S}ea surface temperature ; {C}limate change ; {H}ydrologic cycle ; {C}limate models ; {R}egional models ; {PACIFIQUE} ; {ZONE} {TROPICALE}}, booktitle = {}, journal = {{J}ournal of {C}limate}, volume = {35}, numero = {18}, pages = {6175--6189}, ISSN = {0894-8755}, year = {2022}, DOI = {10.1175/jcli-d-22-0062.1}, URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010086320}, }