@article{fdi:010086059,
  title = {{E}arly warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial {A}tlantic {M}ultidecadal {V}ariability reconstruction},
  author = {{M}ichel, {S}. {L}. {L}. and {S}wingedouw, {D}. and {O}rtega, {P}. and {G}astineau, {G}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette and {M}c{C}arthy, {G}. and {K}hodri, {M}yriam},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}tlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the {N}orth {A}tlantic {O}cean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. {H}owever, its periodicity and drivers are widely debated due to the short temporal extent of instrumental observations and competing effects of both internal and external climate factors acting on {N}orth {A}tlantic surface temperature variability. {H}ere, we use a paleoclimate database and an advanced statistical framework to generate, evaluate, and compare 312 reconstructions of the {A}tlantic multidecadal variability over the past millennium, based on different indices and regression methods. {F}rom this process, the best reconstruction is obtained with the random forest method, and its robustness is checked using climate model outputs and independent oceanic paleoclimate data. {T}his reconstruction shows that memory in variations of {A}tlantic multidecadal variability have strongly increased recently-a potential early warning signal for the approach of a {N}orth {A}tlantic tipping point. {T}his study presents a last millennium reconstruction of {A}tlantic {M}ultidecadal {V}ariability fluctuations. {T}his sufficiently long and validated reconstruction suggests the potential approach of a tipping point in the {N}orth {A}tlantic current system.},
  keywords = {{ATLANTIQUE} ; {ATLANTIQUE} {NORD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature {C}ommunications},
  volume = {13},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {5176 [14 ]},
  year = {2022},
  DOI = {10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010086059},
}