@article{fdi:010085376,
  title = {{U}nraveling the invisible leptospirosis in mainland {S}outheast {A}sia and its fate under climate change},
  author = {{D}ouchet, {L}{\'e}a and {G}oarant, {C}. and {M}angeas, {M}organ and {M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe and {H}injoy, {S}. and {H}erbreteau, {V}incent},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{L}eptospirosis is a neglected waterborne zoonosis of growing concern in tropical and low-income regions. {E}ndemic in {S}outheast {A}sia, its distribution and environmental factors such as climate controlling its dynamics remain poorly documented. {I}n this paper, we investigate for the first time the current and future leptospirosis burden at a local scale in mainland {S}outheast {A}sia. {W}e adjusted machine-learning models on incidence reports from the {T}hai surveillance system to identify environmental determinants of leptospirosis. {T}he explanatory variables tested in ourmodels included climate, topographic, land cover and soil variables. {T}he model performing the best in cross-validation was used to estimate the current incidence regionally in {T}hailand, {M}yanmar, {C}ambodia, {V}ietnam and {L}aos. {I}t then allowed to predict the spatial distribution of leptospirosis future burden from 2021 to 2100 based on an ensemble of {CMIP}6 climate model projections and 4 {S}hared {S}ocio-economics {P}athways ranging from the most optimistic to the no-climate policy outcomes ({SSP}1-2.6, {SSP}2-4.5, {SSP}3-7.0 and {SSP}5-8.5). {L}eptospirosis incidence was best estimated by 10 environmental variables: four landscape-, four rainfall-, two temperature-related variables. {O}f all tested scenario, the worst-case scenario of climate change ({SSP}5-8.5) surprisingly appeared as the best-case scenario for the future of leptospirosis since it would induce a significant global decline in disease incidence in {S}outheast {A}sia mainly driven by the increasing temperatures. {T}hese global patterns are however contrasted regionally with some regions showing increased incidence in the future. {O}ur work highlights climate and the environment as major drivers of leptospirosis incidence in {S}outheast {A}sia. {A}pplying our model to regions where leptospirosis is not routinely monitored suggests an overlooked burden in the region. {A}s our model focuses on leptospirosis responses to environmental drivers only, some other factors, such as poverty, lifestyle or behavioral changes, could further influence these estimated future patterns.},
  keywords = {{W}aterborne ; {Z}oonosis ; {S}patial modelling ; {E}nvironment ; {G}lobal change ; {R}egional scale ; {ASIE} {DU} {SUD} {EST} ; {CAMBODGE} ; {LAOS} ; {THAILANDE} ; {VIET} {NAM} ; {MYANMAR}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{S}cience of the {T}otal {E}nvironment},
  volume = {832},
  numero = {},
  pages = {155018 [12 ]},
  ISSN = {0048-9697},
  year = {2022},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155018},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010085376},
}