Langehaug H. R. auteur aut IRD Ortega P. auteur aut IRD Counillon F. auteur aut IRD Matei D. auteur aut IRD Maroon E. auteur aut IRD Keenlyside N. auteur aut IRD Mignot Juliette auteur aut IRD Wang Y. auteur aut IRD Swingedouw D. auteur aut IRD Bethke I. auteur aut IRD Yang S. auteur aut IRD Danabasoglu G. auteur aut IRD Bellucci A. auteur aut IRD Ruggieri P. auteur aut IRD Nicoli D. auteur aut IRD Arthun M. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970-2005. We focus on the region where warm water flows poleward (i.e., the Atlantic water pathway to the Arctic) and on interannualto-decadal time scales. Observational studies demonstrate predictability several years in advance in this region, but we find that SST skill is low with significant skill only at a lead time of 1-2 years. To better understand why the prediction systems have predictive skill or lack thereof, we assess the skill of the systems to reproduce a spatiotemporal SST pattern based on observations. The physical mechanism underlying this pattern is a propagation of oceanic anomalies from low to high latitudes along the major currents, the North Atlantic Current and the Norwegian Atlantic Current. We find that the prediction systems have difficulties in reproducing this pattern. To identify whether the misrepresentation is due to incorrect model physics, we assess the respective uninitialized historical simulations. These simulations also tend to misrepresent the spatiotemporal SST pattern, indicating that the physical mechanism is not properly simulated. However, the representation of the pattern is slightly degraded in the predictions compared to historical runs, which could be a result of initialization shocks and forecast drift effects. Ways to enhance predictions could include improved initialization and better simulation of poleward circulation of anomalies. This might require model resolutions in which flow over complex bathymetry and the physics of mesoscale ocean eddies and their interactions with the atmosphere are resolved. specialized Ocean circulation Climate prediction Decadal variability 032 021 35 7 2111-2131 2022 0894-8755 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010085179 10.1175/jcli-d-20-1007.1 0894-8755 [F B010085179] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010085179 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/2022-07/010085179.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2022-07-01 2025-02-24 fdi:010085179 fre