@article{fdi:010085148,
  title = {{A}n alternative estimation of the death toll of the {C}ovid-19 pandemic in {I}ndia},
  author = {{G}uilmoto, {C}hristophe},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he absence of reliable registration of {C}ovid-19 deaths in {I}ndia has prevented proper assessment and monitoring of the coronavirus pandemic. {I}n addition, {I}ndia's relatively young age structure tends to conceal the severity of {C}ovid-19 mortality, which is concentrated in older age groups. {I}n this paper, we present four different demographic samples of {I}ndian populations for which we have information on both their demographic structures and death outcomes. {W}e show that we can model the age distribution of {C}ovid-19 mortality in {I}ndia and use this modeling to estimate {C}ovid-19 mortality in the country. {O}ur findings point to a death toll of approximately 3.2-3.7 million persons by early {N}ovember 2021. {O}nce {I}ndia's age structure is factored in, these figures correspond to one of the most severe cases of {C}ovid-19 mortality in the world. {I}ndia has recorded after {F}ebruary 2021 the second outbreak of coronavirus that has affected the entire country. {T}he accuracy of official statistics of {C}ovid-19 mortality has been questioned, and the real number of {C}ovid-19 deaths is thought to be several times higher than reported. {I}n this paper, we assembled four independent population samples to model and estimate the level of {C}ovid-19 mortality in {I}ndia. {W}e first used a population sample with the age and sex of {C}ovid-19 victims to develop a {G}ompertz model of {C}ovid-19 mortality in {I}ndia. {W}e applied and adjusted this mortality model on two other national population samples after factoring in the demographic characteristics of these samples. {W}e finally derive from these samples the most reasonable estimate of {C}ovid-19 mortality level in {I}ndia and confirm this result using a fourth population sample. {O}ur findings point to a death toll of about 3.2-3.7 million persons by late {M}ay 2021. {T}his is by far the largest number of {C}ovid-19 deaths in the world. {O}nce standardized for age and sex structure, {I}ndia's {C}ovid-19 mortality rate is above {B}razil and the {USA}. {O}ur analysis shows that existing population samples allow an alternative estimation of deaths due to {C}ovid-19 in {I}ndia. {T}he results imply that only one out of 7-8 deaths appear to have been recorded as a {C}ovid-19 death in {I}ndia. {T}he estimates also point to a very high {C}ovid-19 mortality rate, which is even higher after age and sex standardization. {T}he magnitude of the pandemic in {I}ndia requires immediate attention. {I}n the absence of effective remedies, this calls for a strong response based on a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and the scale-up of vaccination to make them accessible to all, with an improved surveillance system to monitor the progression of the pandemic and its spread across {I}ndia's regions and social groups.},
  keywords = {{INDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{PL}o{S} {O}ne},
  volume = {17},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {e0263187 [14 ]},
  ISSN = {1932-6203},
  year = {2022},
  DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0263187},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010085148},
}