Moron V. auteur aut IRD Barbero R. auteur aut IRD Mangeas Morgan auteur aut IRD Borgniet L. auteur aut IRD Curt T. auteur aut IRD Berti-Equille Laure auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access An empirical statistical scheme for predicting September-December fires in New Caledonia in the southwestern Pacific Ocean region using a cross-validated generalized linear model has been developed for the 2000-10 period. The predictor employs July sea surface temperatures (SST) recorded over the Nino-4 box (5 degrees S-5 degrees N, 160 degrees-210 degrees E), which are closely related to austral spring (September-November) rainfall anomalies across New Caledonia. The correlation between the logarithm of observed and simulated total burned areas across New Caledonia is 0.87. A decrease in the local-scale skill (median correlation between the log of observed and simulated total burned areas in a 20-km radius around a rain gauge = 0.46) around the main town (Noumea) and its suburbs in the southwest of Grande Terre, and also in northern New Caledonia, could be associated either with a weaker climatic forcing from the Nino-4 SST index or a small-scale climatic forcing not linearly related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. It is more likely that the decrease is tied to the influence of human-driven factors that blur the regional-scale climatic signal mostly associated with central Pacific ENSO events. specialized NOUVELLE CALEDONIE 032 082 52 3 623-633 2013 1558-8424 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010084999 10.1175/jamc-d-12-03.1 1558-8424 [F B010084999] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010084999 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2022-05/010084999.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2013-05-02 2022-05-24 fdi:010084999 fre