Horizon 1 1 17 ACL : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture répertoriées par l'AERES Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 623-633 NOUVELLE CALEDONIE 2013 fdi:010084999 ENG Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 1558-8424 ISI:000316466700007 3 10.1175/jamc-d-12-03.1 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010084999 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2022-05/010084999.pdf 52 Horizon (IRD) An empirical statistical scheme for predicting September-December fires in New Caledonia in the southwestern Pacific Ocean region using a cross-validated generalized linear model has been developed for the 2000-10 period. The predictor employs July sea surface temperatures (SST) recorded over the Nino-4 box (5 degrees S-5 degrees N, 160 degrees-210 degrees E), which are closely related to austral spring (September-November) rainfall anomalies across New Caledonia. The correlation between the logarithm of observed and simulated total burned areas across New Caledonia is 0.87. A decrease in the local-scale skill (median correlation between the log of observed and simulated total burned areas in a 20-km radius around a rain gauge = 0.46) around the main town (Noumea) and its suburbs in the southwest of Grande Terre, and also in northern New Caledonia, could be associated either with a weaker climatic forcing from the Nino-4 SST index or a small-scale climatic forcing not linearly related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. It is more likely that the decrease is tied to the influence of human-driven factors that blur the regional-scale climatic signal mostly associated with central Pacific ENSO events. 032 ; 082 UR161 / UR228