@article{fdi:010084403,
  title = {{T}ephra fallout probabilistic hazard maps for {C}otopaxi and {G}uagua {P}ichincha {V}olcanoes ({E}cuador) with uncertainty quantification},
  author = {{T}adini, {A}. and {A}zzaoui, {N}. and {R}oche, {O}livier and {S}amaniego, {P}ablo and {B}ernard, {B}. and {B}evilacqua, {A}. and {H}idalgo, {S}. and {G}uillin, {A}. and {G}ouhier, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}ephra fallout hazard assessment is undertaken with probabilistic maps that rely on numerical models. {R}egarding maps production, the input parameters of the model (including atmospheric conditions), the physical approximations of the numerical simulations, and the probabilities of occurrence of different eruption types in specific time frames are among the most critical sources of uncertainty. {W}e therefore present a tephra fallout hazard assessment study for two active volcanoes ({C}otopaxi and {G}uagua {P}ichincha) in {E}cuador. {W}e utilize {PLUME}-{M}o{M}/{HYSPLIT} models, and a procedure for uncertainty quantification where: (a) the uncertainty on eruptive source parameters and eruption type occurrence is quantified through expert elicitation; (b) we implement a new procedure for correlations between the different parameters, and (c) we use correction coefficients to take into account the uncertainty of the numerical model. {M}aps of exceedance probability given a deposit thickness threshold, and thickness maps given a probability of exceedance, are produced (a) for two eruptive scenarios (sub-{P}linian and {P}linian) and (b) as a combination of these scenarios in case the next eruption will be sub-{P}linian or {P}linian. {T}hese maps are described according to the uncertainty distribution of eruption type occurrence probabilities, considering their 5th percentile, mean, and 95th percentile values. {W}e finally present hazard curves describing exceeding probabilities in 10 sensitive sites within the city of {Q}uito. {A}dditional information includes the areal extent and the population potentially affected by different isolines of tephra accumulation. {T}his work indicates that full uncertainty quantification helps in providing more robust scientific information, improving the hazard assessment reliability.},
  keywords = {tephra fallout ; volcanic hazard assessment ; {C}otopaxi ; {G}uagua {P}ichincha ; uncertainty quantification ; {EQUATEUR} ; {COTOPAXI} {VOLCAN} ; {GUAGUA} {PICHINCHA} {VOLCAN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {G}eophysical {R}esearch : {S}olid {E}arth},
  volume = {127},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {e2021{JB}022780 [29 ]},
  ISSN = {2169-9313},
  year = {2022},
  DOI = {10.1029/2021jb022780},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010084403},
}