@article{fdi:010083971,
title = {{M}odeling present and future climate risk of dengue outbreak, a case study in {N}ew {C}aledonia},
author = {{O}chida, {N}. and {M}angeas, {M}organ and {D}upont-{R}ouzeyrol, {M}. and {D}utheil, {C}. and {F}orfait, {C}. and {P}eltier, {A}. and {D}escloux, {E}. and {M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe},
editor = {},
language = {{ENG}},
abstract = {{B}ackground {D}engue dynamics result from the complex interactions between the virus, the host and the vector, all being under the influence of the environment. {S}everal studies explored the link between weather and dengue dynamics and some investigated the impact of climate change on these dynamics. {M}ost attempted to predict incidence rate at a country scale or assess the environmental suitability at a global or regional scale. {H}ere, we propose a new approach which consists in modeling the risk of dengue outbreak at a local scale according to climate conditions and study the evolution of this risk taking climate change into account. {W}e apply this approach in {N}ew {C}aledonia, where high quality data are available. {M}ethods {W}e used a statistical estimation of the effective reproduction number ({R}-t) based on case counts to create a categorical target variable : epidemic week/non-epidemic week. {A} machine learning classifier has been trained using relevant climate indicators in order to estimate the probability for a week to be epidemic under current climate data and this probability was then estimated under climate change scenarios. {R}esults {W}eekly probability of dengue outbreak was best predicted with the number of days when maximal temperature exceeded 30.8 degrees {C} and the mean of daily precipitation over 80 and 60 days prior to the predicted week respectively. {A}ccording to scenario {RCP}8.5, climate will allow dengue outbreak every year in {N}ew {C}aledonia if the epidemiological and entomological contexts remain the same. {C}onclusion {W}e identified locally relevant climatic factor driving dengue outbreaks in {N}ew {C}aledonia and assessed the inter-annual and seasonal risk of dengue outbreak under different climate change scenarios up to the year 2100. {W}e introduced a new modeling approach to estimate the risk of dengue outbreak depending on climate conditions. {T}his approach is easily reproducible in other countries provided that reliable epidemiological and climate data are available.},
keywords = {dengue ; disease outbreaks ; effective reproduction number ; climate ; change ; prediction ; {PACIFIQUE} ; {NOUVELLE} {CALEDONIE}},
booktitle = {},
journal = {{E}nvironmental {H}ealth},
volume = {21},
numero = {1},
pages = {20 [10 ]},
year = {2022},
DOI = {10.1186/s12940-022-00829-z},
URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010083971},
}