@article{fdi:010083770,
  title = {{C}limate change impact on sea surface winds in {S}outheast {A}sia},
  author = {{H}errmann, {M}arine and {T}ung, {N}. {D}. and {T}hanh, {N}. {D}. and {T}angang, {F}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{N}umerical representation and climate projections of sea surface winds over {S}outheast {A}sia ({SEA}) are assessed here using an ensemble of the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject {P}hase 5 ({CMIP}5) downscaled simulations performed over the 20th and 21st centuries under {R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athways ({RCP}s) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios within the {C}oordinated {R}egional {C}limate {D}ownscaling {EX}periment ({CORDEX})-{SEA} project. {T}he ensemble is based on two regional climate models ({RCM}s: {R}eg{CM}4 and {RCA}4), and {CMIP}5 simulations are performed with five global climate models ({GCM}s: {CNRM}_{CM}5, {H}ad{GEM}2, {GFDL}, {MPI}-{ESM}-{MR}, {EC}-{E}arth). {C}omparison with {Q}uik{SCAT} satellite data shows that dynamical downscaling improves sea surface wind speed representation, mainly by reducing its underestimation. {T}he level of improvement depends on the {RCM} choice, {GCM} performance, and wind strength. {O}ur results reveal significant differences in modelled projections of sea surface wind, depending on the model, {RCP}, region, and season. {GCM}s simulate weak and contrasted changes, stronger for {RCP}8.5, with no clear common trend. {RCA}4 simulates weak changes, with high similarities between pairs, but contrasted results between {RCP}s. {R}eg{CM}4 simulate stronger changes, with a weakening of average and intense winds for all seasons, stronger in {J}une-{A}ugust, and in {RCP}8.5 than in {RCP}4.5. {RCA}4 and {R}eg{CM}4 simulate different changes, with no clear common trend except a weakening of seasonal and intense winds and an increase of seasonal wind interannual variability for {J}une-{A}ugust in {RCP}4.5, stronger for {R}eg{CM}4. {T}his corresponds to a weakening of the boreal summer monsoon and a slight increase of its interannual variability and presumably to a decrease of the tropical cyclone frequency. {D}ifferences in seasonal sea surface wind changes between models are related to differences in sea level pressure gradient changes. {F}or a given {RCM}, those differences are partly related to the differences between parent {GCM}s. {F}inally, results suggest that uncertainties related to the {RCM} choice are larger than those related to the {GCM} choice.},
  keywords = {climate change ; {CORDEX}-{SEA} ; dynamical downscaling added value ; ensemble ; simulations ; regional climate model ; sea surface wind ; {S}outheast {A}sia ; {OCEAN} {INDIEN} ; {PACIFIQUE} ; {ASIE} {DU} {SUD} {EST} ; {INDONESIE} ; {CHINE} {SUD} {MER}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{I}nternational {J}ournal of {C}limatology},
  volume = {42},
  numero = {7},
  pages = {3571--3595},
  ISSN = {0899-8418},
  year = {2022},
  DOI = {10.1002/joc.7433},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010083770},
}