@article{fdi:010083626,
  title = {{C}an strong-motion observations be used to constrain probabilistic seismic-hazard estimates ?},
  author = {{B}eauval, {C}{\'e}line and {B}ard, {P}. {Y}. and {H}ainzl, {S}. and {G}ueguen, {P}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ecause of the new regulatory requirements that hazards have to be estimated in probabilistic terms, the number of probabilistic hazard studies conducted has recently been increasing. {T}he present study aims at defining the possibilities and limits for comparing predictions from these studies and observations. {C}omparison tests based directly on the rate of ground-motion occurrences are favored over the rate of earthquake occurrences. {B}ased on the properties of {P}oisson processes, the minimum time window ensuring reliable occurrence rate estimates at a site is computed and evaluated. {F}or example, for ground motions with a 475-yr return period at a site, a minimal 12,000-yr observation time window is required for estimating the rate with a 20% uncertainty (coefficient of variation: standard deviation divided by the mean). {T}hese values are not dependent on the seismicity level of the regions under study. {A}n analysis of recorded ground motions at the stations of the permanent {F}rench accelerometer network shows that at best, the occurrence rates can be estimated with an accuracy of 30% for very low acceleration levels (0.0001 - 0.001g for the station {STET}). {T}he same analysis, carried out at two stations with longer recording histories and located in higher seismicity regions ({G}reece and {C}alifornia), provides ground-motion levels up to 0.1g. {T}herefore, the question posed is can the results of a comparison test at low acceleration levels be generalized to higher acceleration levels, even if using a ground-motion prediction equation uniformly valid for a wide range of accelerations?.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}ulletin of the {S}eismological {S}ociety of {A}merica},
  volume = {98},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {509--520},
  ISSN = {0037-1106},
  year = {2008},
  DOI = {10.1785/0120070006},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010083626},
}