@article{fdi:010083624,
  title = {{G}round-motion variability and implementation of a probabilistic-deterministic hazard method},
  author = {{B}eauval, {C}{\'e}line and {H}onore, {L}. and {C}ourboulex, {F}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A} key step in probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment is the prediction of expected ground motions produced by the seismic sources. {M}ost probabilistic studies use a ground-motion prediction model to perform this estimation. {T}he present study aims at testing the use of simulations in the probabilistic analysis instead of ground-motion models. {T}he method used is the empirical {G}reen's function method of {K}ohrs-{S}ansorny et al. (2005), which takes into account the characteristics of the source, propagation paths, and site effects. {T}he recording of only one small event is needed for simulating a larger event. {T}he small events considered here consist of aftershocks from the {M} 6.4 {L}es {S}aintes earthquake, which struck the {G}uadeloupe archipelago ({F}rench {A}ntilles) in 2004. {T}he variability of the simulated ground motions is studied in detail at the sites of the {F}rench {P}ermanent {A}ccelerometric {A}rray. {I}ntrinsic variability is quantified: ground motions follow lognormal distributions with standard deviations between 0.05 and 0.18 (log units) depending on the spectral frequency. {O}ne input parameter bearing large uncertainties is the ratio of the stress drop of the target event to the small event. {T}herefore, overall sigma values (and medians) are recomputed, varying stress drop ratio values between 1 and 15. {S}igma values increase but remain in general lower or equal to the sigma values of current ground-motion prediction models. {A} simple application of this hybrid deterministic-probabilistic method is carried out at several sites in {G}uadeloupe for the estimation of the hazard posed by an {M} 6.4 occurring in the rupture zone of the {L}es {S}aintes event.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}ulletin of the {S}eismological {S}ociety of {A}merica},
  volume = {99},
  numero = {5},
  pages = {2992--3002},
  ISSN = {0037-1106},
  year = {2009},
  DOI = {10.1785/0120080183},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010083624},
}