El Khalki E. auteur aut IRD Tramblay Yves auteur aut IRD Hanich L. auteur aut IRD Marchane A. auteur aut IRD Boudhar A. auteur aut IRD Hakkani B. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access Mediterranean countries are strongly affected by reduced surface water resources. This study aims to assess the climate change impacts on runoff supply to the Bin El Ouidane dam in Morocco, the largest in the country in terms of hydropower production. A water balance model coupled with a stochastic calibration method to provide confidence intervals on simulated discharge is used to reproduce discharge using observed and bias-corrected ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) rainfall (WFDE5). Five regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX initiative are considered to estimate the climate change impacts on surface runoff for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results indicate a future increase in evapotranspiration (+15 to +36%) associated with a decrease in precipitation (-16 to -34%) in both climate scenarios. The hydrological projections indicated a significant decrease in runoff (-57 to -86%), more severe when the model is driven by WFDE5 compared to observed precipitation. Consequently, the strong decline of surface water resources imply a change in water ressource management for hydropower production and local agriculture to adapt to the future climatic conditions. specialized climate change water resources WFDE5 Morocco EURO-CORDEX MAROC 062 021 66 15 2132-2145 2021 0262-6667 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010083315 10.1080/02626667.2021.1982137 0262-6667 [F B010083315] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010083315 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2021-12/010083315.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2021-12-03 2025-02-24 fdi:010083315 fre