@article{fdi:010083297,
  title = {{N}ext-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems},
  author = {{T}ittensor, {D}. {P}. and {N}ovaglio, {C}. and {H}arrison, {C}. {S}. and {H}eneghan, {R}. {F}. and {B}arrier, {N}icolas and {B}ianchi, {D}. and {B}opp, {L}. and {B}ryndum-{B}uchholz, {A}. and {B}ritten, {G}. {L}. and {B}uchner, {M}. and {C}heung, {W}. {W}. {L}. and {C}hristensen, {V}. and {C}oll, {M}arta and {D}unne, {J}. {P}. and {E}ddy, {T}. {D}. and {E}verett, {J}. {D}. and {F}ernandes-{S}alvador, {J}. {A}. and {F}ulton, {E}. {A}. and {G}albraith, {E}. {D}. and {G}ascuel, {D}. and {G}uiet, {J}. and {J}ohn, {J}. {G}. and {L}ink, {J}. {S}. and {L}otze, {H}. {K}. and {M}aury, {O}livier and {O}rtega-{C}isneros, {K}. and {P}alacios-{A}brantes, {J}. and {P}etrik, {C}. {M}. and du {P}ontavice, {H}. and {R}ault, {J}onathan and {R}ichardson, {A}. {J}. and {S}hannon, {L}. and {S}hin, {Y}unne-{J}ai and {S}teenbeek, {J}. and {S}tock, {C}. {A}. and {B}lanchard, {J}. {L}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{U}se of an enhanced suite of marine ecosystem models and {E}arth system model outputs from {P}hase 6 of the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject ({CMIP}6) reveals greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass than previously projected under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios. {P}rojections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. {H}ere we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the {F}isheries and {M}arine {E}cosystem {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject ({F}ish-{MIP}), forced by new-generation {E}arth system model outputs from {P}hase 6 of the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject ({CMIP}6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. {C}ompared with the previous generation {CMIP}5-forced {F}ish-{MIP} ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. {R}egional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.},
  keywords = {{MONDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature {C}limate {C}hange},
  volume = {11},
  numero = {},
  pages = {973--981},
  ISSN = {1758-678{X}},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010083297},
}