@article{fdi:010083265,
  title = {{I}ncreased risk of near term global warming due to a recent {AMOC} weakening},
  author = {{B}onnet, {R}. and {S}wingedouw, {D}. and {G}astineau, {G}. and {B}oucher, {O}. and {D}eshayes, {J}. and {H}ourdin, {F}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette and {S}ervonnat, {J}. and {S}ima, {A}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{S}ome of the new generation {CMIP}6 models are characterised by a strong temperature increase in response to increasing greenhouse gases concentration(1). {A}t first glance, these models seem less consistent with the temperature warming observed over the last decades. {H}ere, we investigate this issue through the prism of low-frequency internal variability by comparing with observations an ensemble of 32 historical simulations performed with the {IPSL}-{CM}6{A}-{LR} model, characterized by a rather large climate sensitivity. {W}e show that members with the smallest rates of global warming over the past 6-7 decades are also those with a large internally-driven weakening of the {A}tlantic {M}eridional {O}verturning {C}irculation ({AMOC}). {T}his subset of members also matches several {AMOC} observational fingerprints, which are in line with such a weakening. {T}his suggests that internal variability from the {A}tlantic {O}cean may have dampened the magnitude of global warming over the historical era. {T}aking into account this {AMOC} weakening over the past decades means that it will be harder to avoid crossing the 2 degrees {C} warming threshold. {N}ew climate models show a stronger warming with greenhouse gas emissions than is suggested by observations. {H}ere, the authors argue that internal variability of the {A}tlantic {O}cean may have dampened some of the recent warming, which could explain part of the disagreement between the newer models and observations.},
  keywords = {{ATLANTIQUE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature {C}ommunications},
  volume = {12},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {6108 [9 p.]},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1038/s41467-021-26370-0},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010083265},
}