@article{fdi:010083131,
  title = {{F}uture snow projections in a small basin of the {W}estern {H}imalaya},
  author = {{N}epal, {S}. and {K}hatiwada, {K}. {R}. and {P}radhananga, {S}. and {K}ralisch, {S}. and {S}amyn, {D}. and {B}romand, {M}. {T}. and {J}amal, {N}. and {D}ildar, {M}. and {D}urrani, {F}. and {R}assouly, {F}. and {A}zizi, {F}. and {S}alehi, {W}. and {M}alikzooi, {R}. and {K}rause, {P}. and {K}oirala, {S}. and {C}hevallier, {P}ierre},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{S}now is a crucial component of the hydrological cycle in the {W}estern {H}imalaya. {W}ater from snowmelt is used in various sectors in downstream regions, thus playing a critical role in securing the livelihoods of millions of people. {I}n this study, we investigated the future evolution of snow cover and snowmelt in the {P}anjshir catchment of {A}fghanistan, a sub-basin of the {I}ndus, in the {W}estern {H}imalaya. {W}e applied a three-step approach to select a few global climate model ({GCM}) simulations from {CMIP}5 climate datasets for {RCP}4.5 and {RCP}8.5, which showed reasonable performance with {ERA}5-{L}and dataset for the chosen historical period (1981-2010). {T}he selected model simulations were then segregated into two groups: those projecting a cold-wet climate and those projecting a warm-dry climate by the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). {T}hese {GCM}s were downscaled to a higher resolution using empirical statistical downscaling. {T}o simulate the snow processes, we used the distributed cryospheric-hydrological {J}2000 model. {T}he results indicate that the model captures well the snow cover dynamics for the historical period when compared with the daily {MODIS}-derived snow cover. {T}he {J}2000 model was then forced by climate projections from the selected {GCM}s to quantify future changes in snow cover area, snow storage and snowmelt. {W}hile a 10-18% reduction in annual snow cover area is projected in the cold-wet models, a 22-36% reduction is projected in the warm-dry models. {S}imilarly, the snow cover area is projected to decrease in all elevation bands under climate change. {A}t the seasonal scale, across all models and scenarios, the snow coverin the autumn and spring seasons are projected to reduce by as much as 25%, with an increase in winter and spring snowmelt and a decrease in summer snowmelt. {T}he projected changes in the seasonal availability of snowmelt-drivenwater resources are likely to have direct implications forwater-dependent sectors in the region and call for a better understanding of water usage and future adaptation practices.},
  keywords = {{S}now cover ; {S}nowmelt ; {J}2000 model ; {I}ndus basin ; {C}limate change impact ; {U}ncertainty ; {P}anjshir ; {A}fghanistan ; {AFGHANISTAN} ; {HINDU} {KUSH} ; {HIMALAYA} ; {PANJSHIR} ; {INDUS} {BASSIN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{S}cience of the {T}otal {E}nvironment},
  volume = {795},
  numero = {},
  pages = {148587 [17 p.]},
  ISSN = {0048-9697},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148587},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010083131},
}