Rounsevell M. D. A. auteur aut IRD Arneth A. auteur aut IRD Brown C. auteur aut IRD Cheung W. W. L. auteur aut IRD Gimenez O. auteur aut IRD Holman I. auteur aut IRD Leadley P. auteur aut IRD Lujan C. auteur aut IRD Mahevas S. auteur aut IRD Marechaux I. auteur aut IRD Pélissier Raphaël auteur aut IRD Verburg P. H. auteur aut IRD Vieilledent G. auteur aut IRD Wintle B. A. auteur aut IRD Shin Yunne-Jai auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access There are many sources of uncertainty in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems, and understanding these uncertainties is critical in supporting informed decision-making about the management of natural resources. Here, we review uncertainty across the steps needed to create socio-ecological scenarios, from narrative storylines to the representation of human and biological processes in models and the estimation of scenario and model parameters. We find that socio-ecological scenarios and models would benefit from moving away from "stylized"approaches that do not consider a wide range of direct drivers and their dependency on indirect drivers. Indeed, a greater focus on the social phenomena is fundamental in under-standing the functioning of nature on a human-dominated planet. There is no panacea for dealing with uncertainty, but several approaches to evaluating uncertainty are still not routinely applied in scenario modeling, and this is becoming increasingly unacceptable. However, it is important to avoid uncertainties becoming an excuse for inaction in decision-making when facing environmental challenges. specialized 098 021 020 4 7 967-985 2021 2590-3330 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082608 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.003 2590-3330 [F B010082608] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082608 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2021-09/010082608.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2021-09-17 2025-02-24 fdi:010082608 fre