@article{fdi:010082607,
  title = {{S}ex ratio at birth in {V}ietnam among six subnational regions during 1980-2050, estimation and probabilistic projection using a {B}ayesian hierarchical time series model with 2.9 million birth records},
  author = {{C}hao, {F}. {Q}. and {G}uilmoto, {C}hristophe and {O}mbao, {H}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he sex ratio at birth ({SRB}, i.e., the ratio of male to female births) in {V}ietnam has been imbalanced since the 2000s. {P}revious studies have revealed a rapid increase in the {SRB} over the past 15 years and the presence of important variations across regions. {M}ore recent studies suggested that the nation's {SRB} may have plateaued during the 2010s. {G}iven the lack of exhaustive birth registration data in {V}ietnam, it is necessary to estimate and project levels and trends in the regional {SRB}s in {V}ietnam based on a reproducible statistical approach. {W}e compiled an extensive database on regional {V}ietnam {SRB}s based on all publicly available surveys and censuses and used a {B}ayesian hierarchical time series mixture model to estimate and project {SRB} in {V}ietnam by region from 1980 to 2050. {T}he {B}ayesian model incorporates the uncertainties from the observations and year-by-year natural fluctuation. {I}t includes a binary parameter to detect the existence of sex ratio transitions among {V}ietnamese regions. {F}urthermore, we model the {SRB} imbalance using a trapezoid function to capture the increase, stagnation, and decrease of the sex ratio transition by {V}ietnamese regions. {T}he model results show that four out of six {V}ietnamese regions, namely, {N}orthern {M}idlands and {M}ountain {A}reas, {N}orthern {C}entral and {C}entral {C}oastal {A}reas, {R}ed {R}iver {D}elta, and {S}outh {E}ast, have existing sex imbalances at birth. {T}he rise in {SRB} in the {R}ed {R}iver {D}elta was the fastest, as it took only 12 years and was more pronounced, with the {SRB} reaching the local maximum of 1.146 with a 95% credible interval (1.129, 1.163) in 2013. {T}he model projections suggest that the current decade will record a sustained decline in sex imbalances at birth, and the {SRB} should be back to the national {SRB} baseline level of 1.06 in all regions by the mid-2030s.},
  keywords = {{VIET} {NAM}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{PL}o{S} {O}ne},
  volume = {16},
  numero = {7},
  pages = {e0253721 [15 p.]},
  ISSN = {1932-6203},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0253721},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082607},
}