Bell J. D. auteur aut IRD Senina I. auteur aut IRD Adams T. auteur aut IRD Aumont Olivier auteur aut IRD Calmettes B. auteur aut IRD Clark S. auteur aut IRD Dessert M. auteur aut IRD Gehlen M. auteur aut IRD Gorgues Thomas auteur aut IRD Hampton J. auteur aut IRD Hanich Q. auteur aut IRD Harden-Davies H. auteur aut IRD Hare S. R. auteur aut IRD Holmes G. auteur aut IRD Lehodey P. auteur aut IRD Lengaigne Matthieu auteur aut IRD Mansfield W. auteur aut IRD Menkès Christophe auteur aut IRD Nicol S. auteur aut IRD Ota Y. auteur aut IRD Pasisi C. auteur aut IRD Pilling G. auteur aut IRD Reid C. auteur aut IRD Ronneberg E. auteur aut IRD Sen Gupta A. auteur aut IRD Seto K. L. auteur aut IRD Smith N. auteur aut IRD Taei S. auteur aut IRD Tsamenyi M. auteur aut IRD Williams P. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access Climate change will alter the distribution of tuna, impacting the economies of Pacific Small Island Developing States. This study finds that greater greenhouse gas emissions will worsen these impacts. Climate-driven redistribution of tuna threatens to disrupt the economies of Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and sustainable management of the world's largest tuna fishery. Here we show that by 2050, under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), the total biomass of three tuna species in the waters of ten Pacific SIDS could decline by an average of 13% (range = -5% to -20%) due to a greater proportion of fish occurring in the high seas. The potential implications for Pacific Island economies in 2050 include an average decline in purse-seine catch of 20% (range = -10% to -30%), an average annual loss in regional tuna-fishing access fees of US$90 million (range = -US$40 million to -US$140 million) and reductions in government revenue of up to 13% (range = -8% to -17%) for individual Pacific SIDS. Redistribution of tuna under a lower-emissions scenario (RCP 4.5) is projected to reduce the purse-seine catch from the waters of Pacific SIDS by an average of only 3% (range = -12% to +9%), indicating that even greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, in line with the Paris Agreement, would provide a pathway to sustainability for tuna-dependent Pacific Island economies. An additional pathway involves Pacific SIDS negotiating within the regional fisheries management organization to maintain the present-day benefits they receive from tuna, regardless of the effects of climate change on the distribution of the fish. specialized PACIFIQUE MICRONESIE KIRIBATI MARSHALL NAURU PALAU PAPOUASIE NOUVELLE GUINEE SALOMON TUVALU 040 021 4 10 900-910 2021 2398-9629 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082605 10.1038/s41893-021-00745-z 2398-9629 [F B010082605] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082605 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/2021-09/010082605.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2021-09-17 2025-02-24 fdi:010082605 fre