@article{fdi:010082605,
  title = {{P}athways to sustaining tuna-dependent {P}acific {I}sland economies during climate change},
  author = {{B}ell, {J}. {D}. and {S}enina, {I}. and {A}dams, {T}. and {A}umont, {O}livier and {C}almettes, {B}. and {C}lark, {S}. and {D}essert, {M}. and {G}ehlen, {M}. and {G}orgues, {T}homas and {H}ampton, {J}. and {H}anich, {Q}. and {H}arden-{D}avies, {H}. and {H}are, {S}. {R}. and {H}olmes, {G}. and {L}ehodey, {P}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {M}ansfield, {W}. and {M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe and {N}icol, {S}. and {O}ta, {Y}. and {P}asisi, {C}. and {P}illing, {G}. and {R}eid, {C}. and {R}onneberg, {E}. and {S}en {G}upta, {A}. and {S}eto, {K}. {L}. and {S}mith, {N}. and {T}aei, {S}. and {T}samenyi, {M}. and {W}illiams, {P}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{C}limate change will alter the distribution of tuna, impacting the economies of {P}acific {S}mall {I}sland {D}eveloping {S}tates. {T}his study finds that greater greenhouse gas emissions will worsen these impacts. {C}limate-driven redistribution of tuna threatens to disrupt the economies of {P}acific {S}mall {I}sland {D}eveloping {S}tates ({SIDS}) and sustainable management of the world's largest tuna fishery. {H}ere we show that by 2050, under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario ({RCP} 8.5), the total biomass of three tuna species in the waters of ten {P}acific {SIDS} could decline by an average of 13% (range = -5% to -20%) due to a greater proportion of fish occurring in the high seas. {T}he potential implications for {P}acific {I}sland economies in 2050 include an average decline in purse-seine catch of 20% (range = -10% to -30%), an average annual loss in regional tuna-fishing access fees of {US}$90 million (range = -{US}$40 million to -{US}$140 million) and reductions in government revenue of up to 13% (range = -8% to -17%) for individual {P}acific {SIDS}. {R}edistribution of tuna under a lower-emissions scenario ({RCP} 4.5) is projected to reduce the purse-seine catch from the waters of {P}acific {SIDS} by an average of only 3% (range = -12% to +9%), indicating that even greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, in line with the {P}aris {A}greement, would provide a pathway to sustainability for tuna-dependent {P}acific {I}sland economies. {A}n additional pathway involves {P}acific {SIDS} negotiating within the regional fisheries management organization to maintain the present-day benefits they receive from tuna, regardless of the effects of climate change on the distribution of the fish.},
  keywords = {{PACIFIQUE} ; {MICRONESIE} ; {KIRIBATI} ; {MARSHALL} ; {NAURU} ; {PALAU} ; {PAPOUASIE} {NOUVELLE} {GUINEE} ; {SALOMON} ; {TUVALU} ; {TOKELAU}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature {S}ustainability},
  volume = {4},
  numero = {10},
  pages = {900--910},
  ISSN = {2398-9629},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1038/s41893-021-00745-z},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082605},
}