Pouteau Robin auteur aut IRD Biurrun I. auteur aut IRD Brunel Caroline auteur aut IRD Chytry M. auteur aut IRD Dawson W. auteur aut IRD Essl F. auteur aut IRD Fristoe T. auteur aut IRD Haveman R. auteur aut IRD Hobohm C. auteur aut IRD Jansen F. auteur aut IRD Kreft H. auteur aut IRD Lenoir J. auteur aut IRD Lenzner B. auteur aut IRD Meyer C. auteur aut IRD Moeslund J. E. auteur aut IRD Pergl J. auteur aut IRD Pysek P. auteur aut IRD Svenning J. C. auteur aut IRD Thuiller W. auteur aut IRD Weigelt P. auteur aut IRD Wohlgemuth T. auteur aut IRD Yang Q. auteur aut IRD van Kleunen M. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access Aims The rapid increase in the number of species that have naturalized beyond their native range is among the most apparent features of the Anthropocene. How alien species will respond to other processes of future global changes is an emerging concern and remains poorly misunderstood. We therefore ask whether naturalized species will respond to climate and land use change differently than those species not yet naturalized anywhere in the world. Location Global. Methods We investigated future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to Europe that are either naturalized (n = 272) or not yet naturalized (1,213) outside of Europe. Potential ranges were estimated based on projections of species distribution models using 20 future climate-change scenarios. We mapped current and future global centres of naturalization risk. We also analysed expected changes in latitudinal, elevational and areal extent of species' potential alien ranges. Results We showed a large potential for more worldwide naturalizations of European plants currently and in the future. The centres of naturalization risk for naturalized and non-naturalized plants largely overlapped, and their location did not change much under projected future climates. Nevertheless, naturalized plants had their potential range shifting poleward over larger distances, whereas the non-naturalized ones had their potential elevational ranges shifting further upslope under the most severe climate change scenarios. As a result, climate and land use changes are predicted to shrink the potential alien range of European plants, but less so for already naturalized than for non-naturalized species. Main conclusions While currently non-naturalized plants originate frequently from mountain ranges or boreal and Mediterranean biomes in Europe, the naturalized ones usually occur at low elevations, close to human centres of activities. As the latter are expected to increase worldwide, this could explain why the potential alien range of already naturalized plants will shrink less. specialized Alien plant species biological invasions climate change distributional range shift interacting effect of global changes land use change macroecology migration non-analogue climate species distribution model EUROPE 076 082 020 021 27 11 2063-2076 2021 1366-9516 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082592 10.1111/ddi.13378 1366-9516 [F B010082592] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082592 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/2021-09/010082592.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2021-09-17 2025-06-02 fdi:010082592 fre