@article{fdi:010082313,
  title = {{T}he asymmetric influence of ocean heat content on {ENSO} predictability in the {CNRM}-{CM}5 coupled general circulation model},
  author = {{P}lanton, {Y}. {Y}. and {V}ialard, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me and {G}uilyardi, {E}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {M}c{P}haden, {M}. {J}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{U}nusually high western {P}acific {O}cean oceanic heat content often leads to {E}l {N}ino about 1 year later, while unusually low heat content leads to {L}a {N}ina. {H}ere, we investigate if {E}l {N}ino-{S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}) predictability also depends on the initial state recharge, and we discuss the underlying mechanisms. {T}o that end, we use the {CNRM}-{CM}5 model, which has a reasonable representation of the main observed {ENSO} characteristics, asymmetries, and feedbacks. {O}bservations and a 1007-yr-long {CNRM}-{CM}5 simulation indicate that discharged states evolve more systematically into {L}a {N}ina events than recharged states into neutral states or {E}l {N}ino events. {W}e ran 70-member ensemble experiments in a perfect-model setting, initialized in boreal autumn from either recharged or discharged western {P}acific heat content, sampling the full range of corresponding {ENSO} phases. {P}redictability measures based both on spread and signal-to-noise ratio confirm that discharged states yield a more predictable {ENSO} outcome one year later than recharged states. {A}s expected from recharge oscillator theory, recharged states evolve into positive central {P}acific sea surface temperature anomalies in boreal spring, inducing stronger and more variable westerly wind event activity and a fast growth of the ensemble spread during summer and autumn. {T}his also enhances the positive wind stress feedback in autumn, but the effect is offset by changes in thermocline and heat flux feedbacks. {T}he state-dependent component of westerly wind events is thus the most likely cause for the predictability asymmetry in {CNRM}-{CM}5, although changes in the low-frequency wind stress feedback may also contribute.},
  keywords = {{P}acific {O}cean ; {A}tmosphere-ocean interaction ; {ENSO} ; {S}easonal forecasting ; {C}limate models ; {I}nterannual variability ; {PACIFIQUE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {C}limate},
  volume = {34},
  numero = {14},
  pages = {5775--5793},
  ISSN = {0894-8755},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1175/jcli-d-20-0633.1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082313},
}