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Almar Rafaël, Ranasinghe R., Bergsma E. W. J., Diaz H., Melet A., Papa Fabrice, Vousdoukas M., Athanasiou P., Dada O., Almeida L. P., Kestenare Elodie. (2021). A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping. Nature Communications, 12 (1), 3775 [9 p.]. ISSN 2041-1723.

Titre du document
A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping
Année de publication
2021
Type de document
Article référencé dans le Web of Science WOS:000665040300004
Auteurs
Almar Rafaël, Ranasinghe R., Bergsma E. W. J., Diaz H., Melet A., Papa Fabrice, Vousdoukas M., Athanasiou P., Dada O., Almeida L. P., Kestenare Elodie
Source
Nature Communications, 2021, 12 (1), 3775 [9 p.] ISSN 2041-1723
Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are widely expected to exacerbate coastal hazards such as episodic coastal flooding. This study presents global-scale potential coastal overtopping estimates, which account for not only the effects of sea level rise and storm surge, but also for wave runup at exposed open coasts. Here we find that the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours have increased by almost 50% over the last two decades. A first-pass future assessment indicates that globally aggregated annual overtopping hours will accelerate faster than the global mean sea-level rise itself, with a clearly discernible increase occurring around mid-century regardless of climate scenario. Under RCP 8.5, the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours by the end of the 21(st)-century is projected to be up to 50 times larger compared to present-day. As sea level continues to rise, more regions around the world are projected to become exposed to coastal overtopping. As sea levels rise, coasts are being increasingly threatened by overtopping caused by the combination of sea level rise, storm surge and wave runup. Here the authors find that global coastal overtopping has increased by over 50% in the last two decades, and under a RCP 8.5 scenario this could increase up to 50 times by 2100 compared to today.
Plan de classement
Sciences du milieu [021] ; Limnologie physique / Océanographie physique [032]
Description Géographique
MONDE
Localisation
Fonds IRD [F B010082249]
Identifiant IRD
fdi:010082249
Contact
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