Swingedouw D. auteur aut IRD Bily A. auteur aut IRD Esquerdo C. auteur aut IRD Borchert L. F. auteur aut IRD Sgubin G. auteur aut IRD Mignot Juliette auteur aut IRD Menary M. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access CMIP5 models have been shown to exhibit rapid cooling events in their projections of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Here, we analyze the CMIP6 archive, searching for such rapid cooling events in the new generation of models. Four models out of 35 exhibit such instabilities. The climatic impacts of these events are large on decadal timescales, with a substantial effect on surface temperature over Europe, precipitation pattern in the tropics-most notably the Sahel and Amazon regions-and a possible impact on the mean atmospheric circulation. The mechanisms leading to these events are related to the collapse of deep convection in the subpolar gyre, modifying profoundly the oceanic circulation. Analysis of stratification in the subpolar gyre as compared with observations highlights that the biases of the models explain relatively well the spread in their projections of surface temperature trends: models showing the smallest stratification biases over the recent period also show the weakest warming trends. The models exhibiting abrupt cooling rank among the 11 best models for this stratification indicator, leading to a risk of encountering an abrupt cooling event of up to 36.4%, slightly lower than the 45.5% estimated in CMIP5 models. specialized abrupt climate changes North Atlantic circulation subpolar gyre climatic projections CMIP6 climate models 032 021 020 [Early access] [15 ] 2021 0077-8923 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082243 10.1111/nyas.14659 0077-8923 [F B010082243] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082243 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2021-08/010082243.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2021-08-31 2025-02-24 fdi:010082243 fre