@article{fdi:010082243,
  title = {{O}n the risk of abrupt changes in the {N}orth {A}tlantic subpolar gyre in {CMIP}6 models},
  author = {{S}wingedouw, {D}. and {B}ily, {A}. and {E}squerdo, {C}. and {B}orchert, {L}. {F}. and {S}gubin, {G}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette and {M}enary, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{CMIP}5 models have been shown to exhibit rapid cooling events in their projections of the {N}orth {A}tlantic subpolar gyre. {H}ere, we analyze the {CMIP}6 archive, searching for such rapid cooling events in the new generation of models. {F}our models out of 35 exhibit such instabilities. {T}he climatic impacts of these events are large on decadal timescales, with a substantial effect on surface temperature over {E}urope, precipitation pattern in the tropics-most notably the {S}ahel and {A}mazon regions-and a possible impact on the mean atmospheric circulation. {T}he mechanisms leading to these events are related to the collapse of deep convection in the subpolar gyre, modifying profoundly the oceanic circulation. {A}nalysis of stratification in the subpolar gyre as compared with observations highlights that the biases of the models explain relatively well the spread in their projections of surface temperature trends: models showing the smallest stratification biases over the recent period also show the weakest warming trends. {T}he models exhibiting abrupt cooling rank among the 11 best models for this stratification indicator, leading to a risk of encountering an abrupt cooling event of up to 36.4%, slightly lower than the 45.5% estimated in {CMIP}5 models.},
  keywords = {abrupt climate changes ; {N}orth {A}tlantic circulation ; subpolar gyre ; climatic projections ; {CMIP}6 climate models ; {ATLANTIQUE} {NORD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{A}nnals of the {N}ew {Y}ork {A}cademy of {S}ciences},
  volume = {[{E}arly access]},
  numero = {},
  pages = {[15 ]},
  ISSN = {0077-8923},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1111/nyas.14659},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082243},
}