@article{fdi:010082203,
  title = {{E}xploring the future of the {C}oral {S}ea micronekton},
  author = {{R}eceveur, {A}. and {D}utheil, {C}. and {G}orgues, {T}homas and {M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {N}icol, {S}. and {L}ehodey, {P}. and {A}llain, {V}. and {M}{\'e}nard, {F}r{\'e}d{\'e}ric and {L}ebourges {D}haussy, {A}nne},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{E}cosystem models forced by future climate simulations outputs from the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject {P}hase 5 ({CMIP}5) simulate a substantial decline of tropical marine animal biomass over the course of the 21st century. {R}egional projections are however far more uncertain because of well-known biases common to most {CMIP}5 historical simulations that propagate within the food web. {M}oreover, the model outputs for high trophic levels marine fauna suffer from lack of validation based on in situ data. {I}n this study, we implement a "bias-mitigation" strategy to reduce the physical oceanography and biogeochemical biases simulated by three {CMIP}5 models under the future {RCP}8.5 scenario. {W}e force two very different micronekton models with these "bias-mitigated" outputs to infer the future micronekton changes in the {C}oral {S}ea: a 3-{D} deterministic population dynamics model; and a 3-{D} statistical model based on in situ hydro-acoustic data. {T}hese two models forecast a consistent pattern of micronekton abundance changes in the epipelagic layer (0-150 m) by 2100 for three different climate forcing used, with a marked decrease south of 22 degrees {S} and a smaller increase further north mostly related to temperature and chlorophyll changes. {I}n contrast, changes in the vertical patterns of micronekton predicted by the two models considerably differ in the upper mesopelagic layers (150-450 m) and lower mesopelagic layer (450-1000 m), highlighting the structural sensitivity in model type. {S}ince micronekton are prey of all larger marine predators, those discrepancies in vertical structures of micronekton may hamper our potential to predict how top predators may evolve in the future.},
  keywords = {{M}icronekton ; {E}chosounder ; {C}oral {S}ea ; {C}limate change ; {D}ynamical ecosystem model ; {S}tatistical ecosystem model ; {PACIFIQUE} ; {MER} {DE} {CORAIL}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}rogress in {O}ceanography},
  volume = {195},
  numero = {},
  pages = {[13 ]},
  ISSN = {0079-6611},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102593},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082203},
}