Larochelle S. auteur aut IRD Lapusta N. auteur aut IRD Ampuero Jean-Paul auteur aut IRD Cappa F. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access While the notion that injecting fluids into the subsurface can reactivate faults by reducing frictional resistance is well established, the ensuing evolution of the slip is still poorly understood. What controls whether the induced slip remains stable and confined to the fluid-affected zone or accelerates into a runaway earthquake? Are there observable indicators of the propensity to earthquakes before they happen? Here, we investigate these questions by modeling a unique fluid-injection experiment on a natural fault with laboratory-derived friction laws. We show that a range of fault models with diverging stability with sustained injection reproduce the slip measured during pressurization. Upon depressurization, however, the most unstable scenario departs from the observations, suggesting that the fault is relatively stable. The models could be further distinguished with optimized depressurization tests or spatially distributed monitoring. Our findings indicate that avoiding injection near low-residual-friction faults and depressurizing during slip acceleration could help prevent large-scale earthquakes. specialized 064 066 020 48 10 e2020GL091188 [11 ] 2021 0094-8276 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082109 10.1029/2020gl091188 0094-8276 [F B010082109] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082109 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2021-07/010082109.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2021-07-02 2025-02-24 fdi:010082109 fre