%0 Journal Article
%9 ACL : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture répertoriées par l'AERES
%A Marinière, Judith
%A Beauval, Céline
%A Nocquet, Jean-Mathieu
%A Chlieh, Mohamed
%A Yepes, H.
%T Earthquake recurrence model for the colombia-Ecuador subduction zone constrained from seismic and geodetic data, implication for PSHA
%D 2021
%L fdi:010082103
%G ENG
%J Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
%@ 0037-1106
%K COLOMBIE ; EQUATEUR ; ANDES
%M ISI:000656889000021
%N 3
%P 1508-1528
%R 10.1785/0120200338
%U https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082103
%> https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2021-07/010082103.pdf
%V 111
%W Horizon (IRD)
%X Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment relies on long-term earthquake forecasts and ground-motion models. Our aim is to improve earthquake forecasts by including information derived from geodetic measurements, with an application to the Colombia-Ecuador megathrust. The annual rate of moment deficit accumulation at the interface is quantified from geodetically based interseismic coupling models. We look for Gutenberg-Richter recurrence models that match both past seismicity rates and the geodetic moment deficit rate, by adjusting the maximum magnitude. We explore the uncertainties on the seismic rates (a- and b-values, shape close to M-max) and on the geodetic moment deficit rate to be released seismically. A distribution for the maximum magnitudeMmax bounding a series of earthquake recurrence models is obtained for the Colombia-Ecuador megathrust. Models associated with Mmax values compatible with the extension of the interface segment are selected. We show that the uncertainties mostly influencing the moment-balanced recurrence model are the fraction of geodetic moment released through aseismic processes and the form of the Gutenberg-Richter model close to M-max. We combine the computed moment-balanced recurrence models with a ground-motion model, to obtain a series of uniform hazard spectra representative of uncertainties at one site on the coast. Considering the recent availability of a massive quantity of geodetic data, our approach could be used in other well-instrumented regions of the world.
%$ 066 ; 020