@article{fdi:010082103,
  title = {{E}arthquake recurrence model for the colombia-{E}cuador subduction zone constrained from seismic and geodetic data, implication for {PSHA}},
  author = {{M}arini{\`e}re, {J}udith and {B}eauval, {C}{\'e}line and {N}ocquet, {J}ean-{M}athieu and {C}hlieh, {M}ohamed and {Y}epes, {H}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{P}robabilistic seismic hazard assessment relies on long-term earthquake forecasts and ground-motion models. {O}ur aim is to improve earthquake forecasts by including information derived from geodetic measurements, with an application to the {C}olombia-{E}cuador megathrust. {T}he annual rate of moment deficit accumulation at the interface is quantified from geodetically based interseismic coupling models. {W}e look for {G}utenberg-{R}ichter recurrence models that match both past seismicity rates and the geodetic moment deficit rate, by adjusting the maximum magnitude. {W}e explore the uncertainties on the seismic rates (a- and b-values, shape close to {M}-max) and on the geodetic moment deficit rate to be released seismically. {A} distribution for the maximum magnitude{M}max bounding a series of earthquake recurrence models is obtained for the {C}olombia-{E}cuador megathrust. {M}odels associated with {M}max values compatible with the extension of the interface segment are selected. {W}e show that the uncertainties mostly influencing the moment-balanced recurrence model are the fraction of geodetic moment released through aseismic processes and the form of the {G}utenberg-{R}ichter model close to {M}-max. {W}e combine the computed moment-balanced recurrence models with a ground-motion model, to obtain a series of uniform hazard spectra representative of uncertainties at one site on the coast. {C}onsidering the recent availability of a massive quantity of geodetic data, our approach could be used in other well-instrumented regions of the world.},
  keywords = {{COLOMBIE} ; {EQUATEUR} ; {ANDES}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}ulletin of the {S}eismological {S}ociety of {A}merica},
  volume = {111},
  numero = {3},
  pages = {1508--1528},
  ISSN = {0037-1106},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1785/0120200338},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082103},
}