@article{fdi:010082062,
  title = {{A} unified statistical framework for detecting trends in multi-timescale precipitation extremes : application to non-stationary intensity-duration-frequency curves},
  author = {{C}hagnaud, {G}. and {P}anthou, {G}. and {V}ischel, {T}. and {B}lanchet, {J}. and {L}ebel, {T}hierry},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}here is a large agreement that global warming induces changes of precipitation regimes of different nature and amplitude depending on the timescale considered. {T}his question is of special concern regarding extreme rainfall that might have critical socio-environmental consequences. {A} unified framework is proposed here for detecting trends in extreme rainfall. {I}t is based on the {GEV} distribution, whose parameters depend both on a simple scaling formulation to account for multiple time durations of rainfall and on time to account for the non-stationarity deriving from climatic trends. {T}he implementation of the model is illustrated in the {S}ahel region by analyzing 30 in situ rainfall series of 28 years measured at time-steps from 2 to 24 h. {W}hile the separate analysis of the point series proves inconclusive for detecting trends at any of the time-steps considered, the inclusion of all the series and time-steps into the proposed unified model allows trends to be detected at a high level of confidence (p-value < 1%). {T}his trend essentially appears in the scale parameter of the regional {GEV} distribution, involving a 15 to 20% increase of the 10-year rainfall in 28 years, and a 23 to 30% increase of the 100-year rainfall. {T}he main advantages of the proposed framework are (i) its parsimony, allowing for reducing the uncertainty associated with the model inference; (ii) its capacity for detecting trends either in the mean and/or in the variability of the extreme events; and (iii) its ability for producing non-stationary {I}ntensity-{D}uration-{F}requency curves that are coherent over a range of durations of accumulation.},
  keywords = {{T}rend detection ; {P}recipitation extremes ; {N}on-stationarity ; {I}ntensity-duration-frequency curves ; {ZONE} {SAHELIENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{T}heoretical and {A}pplied {C}limatology},
  volume = {[{E}arly access]},
  numero = {},
  pages = {[22 p.]},
  ISSN = {0177-798{X}},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00704-021-03650-9},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082062},
}