De Haas H. auteur aut IRD Czaika M. auteur aut IRD Flahaux Marie-Laurence auteur aut IRD Mahendra E. auteur aut IRD Natter K. auteur aut IRD Vezzoli S. auteur aut IRD Villares-Varela M. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access This paper synthesizes insights from new global data on the effectiveness of migration policies. It investigates the complex links between migration policies and migration trends to disentangle policy effects from structural migration determinants. The analysis challenges two central assumptions underpinning the popular idea that migration restrictions have failed to curb migration. First, post WWII global migration levels have not accelerated, but remained relatively stable while most shifts in migration patterns have been directional. Second, post WWII migration policies have generally liberalized despite political rhetoric suggesting the contrary. While migration policies are generally effective, "substitution effects" can limit their effectiveness, or even make them counterproductive, by geographically diverting migration, interrupting circulation, encouraging unauthorized migration, or prompting "now or never" migration surges. These effects expose fundamental policy dilemmas and highlight the importance of understanding the economic, social, and political trends that shape migration in sometimes counterintuitive, but powerful, ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies. specialized MONDE 108MIGRA 114SCIPO 15 4 885-922 2019 0098-7921 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010081743 10.1111/padr.12291 0098-7921 [F B010081743] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010081743 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/2021-08/010081743.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2021-04-21 2025-02-24 fdi:010081743 fre