@article{fdi:010081468,
  title = {{H}eat waves in spring from {S}enegal to {S}ahel : evolution under climate change},
  author = {{S}ambou, {M}. {J}. {G}. and {P}ohl, {B}. and {J}anicot, {S}erge and {F}amien, {A}. {M}. {L}. and {R}oucou, {P}. and {B}adiane, {D}. and {G}aye, {A}. {T}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}his study analyses the long-term (1950-2100) observed and projected changes in springtime ({M}arch-{M}ay) heat waves ({HW}s) in {W}est {A}frica under climate change. {T}o that end, 28 climate models participating to the fifth {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject ({CMIP}5) are considered, after a statistical post-correction of their biases. {A} multi-scale approach is proposed, covering the {S}ahel, {S}enegal, and three thermally-coherent zones within {S}enegal. {HW}s are defined as a sequence of at least three consecutive days above a moving 95th percentile of current temperature distributions. {C}limate change over {S}enegal translates into a general shift of the whole statistical distribution towards higher temperature values, with a general stability in the shape of the distribution. {O}ngoing mean warming could reach +5 degrees {C} in 2100 under {RCP}8.5 scenario, implying that coastal {S}enegal could experience then a mean climate comparable to the hinterland parts today. {HW}s have increased in intensity, frequency and duration across {S}ahel and {S}enegal over the past years, such intensification being higher on recent decades. {F}uture {HW}s over all regions present intrinsic properties that radically differ from those observed so far. {T}he severity and length of {HW}s displayed stationary conditions until the late 1990s, but started increasing since then. {P}rojected changes show marked and rapid increase in these variables, the amplitude of which is primarily {RCP}-dependent, and secondarily region-dependent. {F}or both metrics, the largest changes occur over hinterland {S}enegal and {S}ahel. {T}here, under {RCP}8.5 and after the 2070s, the whole spring season could be considered as a permanent {HW} lasting 3 months. {A}long the coast, by contrast, average temperatures are both weaker and more variable, causing more frequent threshold crossings and limiting the duration of {HW}s. {T}he multi-scale approach used here highlights contrast within {S}enegal, which constitutes important information for public policy decision-makers and its inhabitants in terms of adaptation to climate change.},
  keywords = {climate change ; {CMIP}5 ; heat wave ; {S}ahel ; {S}enegal ; zoning ; {SENEGAL} ; {ZONE} {SAHELIENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{I}nternational {J}ournal of {C}limatology},
  volume = {[{E}arly access]},
  numero = {},
  pages = {[16 p.]},
  ISSN = {0899-8418},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1002/joc.7176},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010081468},
}