@article{fdi:010081459,
  title = {{C}auses of the long-term variability of southwestern {S}outh {A}merica precipitation in the {IPSL}-{CM}6{A}-{LR} model},
  author = {{V}illamayor, {J}. and {K}hodri, {M}yriam and {V}illalba, {R}. and {D}aux, {V}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{S}outhwestern {S}outh {A}merica ({SWSA}) has undergone frequent and persistent droughts in recent decades with severe impacts on water resources, and consequently, on socio-economic activities at a sub-continental scale. {T}he local drying trend in this region has been associated with the expansion of the subtropical drylands over the last decades. {I}t has been shown that {SWSA} precipitation is linked to large-scale dynamics modulated by internal climate variability and external forcing. {T}his work aims at unravelling the causes of this long-term trend toward dryness in the context of the emerging climate change relying on a large set simulations of the state-of-the-art {IPSL}-{CM}6{A}-{LR} climate model from the 6th phase of the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject. {O}ur results identify the leading role of dynamical changes induced by external forcings, over the local thermodynamical effects and teleconnections with internal global modes of sea surface temperature. {O}ur findings show that the simulated long-term changes of {SWSA} precipitation are dominated by externally forced anomalous expansion of the {S}outhern {H}emisphere {H}adley {C}ell ({HC}) and a persistent positive {S}outhern {A}nnular {M}ode ({SAM}) trend since the late 1970s. {L}ong-term changes in the {HC} extent and the {SAM} show strong co-linearity. {T}hey are attributable to stratospheric ozone depletion in austral spring-summer and increased atmospheric greenhouse gases all year round. {F}uture ssp585 and ssp126 scenarios project a dominant role of anthropogenic forcings on the {HC} expansion and the subsequent {SWSA} drying, exceeding the threshold of extreme drought due to internal variability as soon as the 2040s, and suggest that these effects will persist until the end of the twenty-first century.},
  keywords = {{S}ubtropical {A}ndes drying trend ; {H}adley {C}ell expansion ; {D}ecadal variability ; {E}xternal forcing ; {CMIP}6 ; {D}etection and attribution ; {F}uture scenarios ; {CHILI} ; {ARGENTINE} ; {ANDES}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {[{E}arly access]},
  numero = {},
  pages = {[24 p.]},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-021-05811-y},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010081459},
}