@article{fdi:010081416,
  title = {{E}ruption type probability and eruption source parameters at {C}otopaxi and {G}uagua {P}ichincha volcanoes ({E}cuador) with uncertainty quantification},
  author = {{T}adini, {A}. and {R}oche, {O}livier and {S}amaniego, {P}ablo and {A}zzaoui, {N}. and {B}evilacqua, {A}. and {G}uillin, {A}. and {G}ouhier, {M}. and {B}ernard, {B}. and {A}spinall, {W}. and {H}idalgo, {S}. and {E}ychenne, {J}. and {V}itturi, {M}. {D}. and {N}eri, {A}. and {C}ioni, {R}. and {P}istolesi, {M}. and {G}aunt, {E}. and {V}allejo, {S}. and {E}ncalada, {M}. and {Y}epes, {H}. and {P}roano, {A}. and {P}ique, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{F}uture occurrence of explosive eruptive activity at {C}otopaxi and {G}uagua {P}ichincha volcanoes, {E}cuador, is assessed probabilistically, utilizing expert elicitation. {E}ight eruption types were considered for each volcano. {T}ype event probabilities were evaluated for the next eruption at each volcano and for at least one of each type within the next 100 years. {F}or each type, we elicited relevant eruption source parameters (duration, average plume height, and total tephra mass). {W}e investigated the robustness of these elicited evaluations by deriving probability uncertainties using three expert scoring methods. {F}or {C}otopaxi, we considered both rhyolitic and andesitic magmas. {E}licitation findings indicate that the most probable next eruption type is an andesitic hydrovolcanic/ash-emission (similar to 26-44% median probability), which has also the highest median probability of recurring over the next 100 years. {H}owever, for the next eruption at {C}otopaxi, the average joint probabilities for sub-{P}linian or {P}linian type eruption is of order 30-40%-a significant chance of a violent explosive event. {I}t is inferred that any {C}otopaxi rhyolitic eruption could involve a longer duration and greater erupted mass than an andesitic event, likely producing a prolonged emergency. {F}or {G}uagua {P}ichincha, future eruption types are expected to be andesitic/dacitic, and a vulcanian event is judged most probable for the next eruption (median probability similar to 40-55%); this type is expected to be most frequent over the next 100 years, too. {H}owever, there is a substantial probability (possibly >40% in average) that the next eruption could be sub-{P}linian or {P}linian, with all that implies for hazard levels.},
  keywords = {{C}otopaxi volcano ; {G}uagua {P}ichincha volcano ; {V}olcanic hazard ; {E}xpert elicitation ; {U}ncertainty quantification ; {EQUATEUR} ; {COTOPAXI} {VOLCAN} ; {GUAGUA} {PICHINCHA} {VOLCAN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}ulletin of {V}olcanology},
  volume = {83},
  numero = {5},
  pages = {35 [25 p.]},
  ISSN = {0258-8900},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00445-021-01458-z},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010081416},
}