@article{fdi:010081372,
  title = {{A}pparent earthquake rupture predictability},
  author = {{M}eier, {M}. {A}. and {A}mpuero, {J}ean-{P}aul and {C}ochran, {E}. and {P}age, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}o what extent can the future evolution of an ongoing earthquake rupture be predicted? {T}his question of fundamental scientific and practical importance has recently been addressed by studies of teleseismic source time functions ({STF}s) but reaching contrasting conclusions. {O}ne study concludes that the initial portion of {STF}s is the same regardless of magnitude. {A}nother study concludes that the rate at which earthquakes grow increases systematically and strongly with final event magnitudes. {H}ere, we show that the latter reported trend is caused by a selection bias towards events with unusually long durations and by estimates of {STF} growth made when the {STF} is already decaying. {I}f these invalid estimates are left out, the trend is no longer present, except during the first few seconds of the smallest events in the data set, {M}-w 5-6.5, for which the reliability of the {STF} amplitudes is questionable. {S}imple synthetic tests show that the observations are consistent with statistically indistinguishable growth of smaller and larger earthquakes. {A} much weaker trend is apparent among events of comparable duration, but we argue that its significance is not resolvable by the current data. {F}inally, we propose a nomenclature to facilitate further discussions of earthquake rupture predictability and determinism.},
  keywords = {{E}arthquake dynamics ; {E}arthquake early warning ; {E}arthquake interaction, ; forecasting, and prediction ; {E}arthquake source observations},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}eophysical {J}ournal {I}nternational},
  volume = {225},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {657--663},
  ISSN = {0956-540{X}},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1093/gji/ggaa610},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010081372},
}