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Meier M. A., Ampuero Jean-Paul, Cochran E., Page M. (2021). Apparent earthquake rupture predictability. Geophysical Journal International, 225 (1), 657-663. ISSN 0956-540X.

Titre du document
Apparent earthquake rupture predictability
Année de publication
2021
Type de document
Article référencé dans le Web of Science WOS:000646864000037
Auteurs
Meier M. A., Ampuero Jean-Paul, Cochran E., Page M.
Source
Geophysical Journal International, 2021, 225 (1), 657-663 ISSN 0956-540X
To what extent can the future evolution of an ongoing earthquake rupture be predicted? This question of fundamental scientific and practical importance has recently been addressed by studies of teleseismic source time functions (STFs) but reaching contrasting conclusions. One study concludes that the initial portion of STFs is the same regardless of magnitude. Another study concludes that the rate at which earthquakes grow increases systematically and strongly with final event magnitudes. Here, we show that the latter reported trend is caused by a selection bias towards events with unusually long durations and by estimates of STF growth made when the STF is already decaying. If these invalid estimates are left out, the trend is no longer present, except during the first few seconds of the smallest events in the data set, M-w 5-6.5, for which the reliability of the STF amplitudes is questionable. Simple synthetic tests show that the observations are consistent with statistically indistinguishable growth of smaller and larger earthquakes. A much weaker trend is apparent among events of comparable duration, but we argue that its significance is not resolvable by the current data. Finally, we propose a nomenclature to facilitate further discussions of earthquake rupture predictability and determinism.
Plan de classement
Sciences fondamentales / Techniques d'analyse et de recherche [020] ; Géophysique interne [066]
Localisation
Fonds IRD [F B010081372]
Identifiant IRD
fdi:010081372
Contact