Moucha A. auteur aut IRD Hanich L. auteur aut IRD Tramblay Yves auteur aut IRD Saaidi A. auteur aut IRD Gascoin S. auteur aut IRD Martin E. auteur aut IRD Le Page Michel auteur aut IRD Bouras E. auteur aut IRD Szczypta C. auteur aut IRD Jarlan Lionel auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access In semiarid areas, the climate is characterized by strong spatiotemporal variability while the meteorological ground network is often very sparse. In this context, the spatial distribution of meteorological variables is thus a real issue for watershed hydrology, agronomy and the study of surface-atmosphere retroaction in these regions. The aim of this study is twofold: (1) to evaluate and to adapt a reanalysis system "Systeme d'Analyse Fournissant des Renseignements Adaptes a la Nivologie" (SAFRAN) to map the meteorological variables on the Tensift catchment (Morocco) between 2004 and 2014; (2) to project temperature and precipitation for the 2041-2060 horizon at high-resolution based on the Euro-CORDEX database at 12 km resolution (using two Representative Concentration Pathway -RCPs- scenarios and four Regional Climate Models), on the SAFRAN reanalysis and on a network of meteorological stations. SAFRAN was assessed: (1) based on leave-one-out for a station located in the plain and another in the mountains; (2) by comparison to another re-analysis system named the Meteorological Distribution System for High-Resolution Terrestrial Modeling (MicroMet); (3) by comparison to in situ measurements of snowfall at one station and to the daily Snow Cover Area derived from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product at the catchment scale. The evaluation of the SAFRAN reanalysis showed that an irregular grid up to 1 km resolution is better for reproducing meteorological variables than the regular version of SAFRAN at 8 km, especially in mountains. The projection of the SAFRAN forcing is conducted in three steps corresponding to the three subsections below: (1) disaggregation of the Euro-CORDEX climate scenarios using the Q-Q approach based on stations data; (2) computation of the spatialized delta-change between historical and future Euro-CORDEX runs after Q-Q correction; (3) futurization of SAFRAN using the spatialized delta change values. The mountainous area is expected to face a higher increase in air temperature than the plains, reaching +2.5 degrees C for RCP8.5 and +1.71 degrees C for RCP4.5 over 2041-2060. This warming will be accompanied by a marked decrease in precipitation (-16% for RCP8.5). These present and future spatialized data sets should be useful for impact studies, in particular those focusing on water resources. specialized ZONE MEDITERRANEENNE SAFRAN MicroMet Euro-CORDEX regional climate modelling Mediterranean semiarid quantile&#8211 quantile disaggregation climate change MODIS snow cover fraction MAROC TENSIFT ZONE ARIDE ZONE SEMIARIDE 062 021 020 12 3 370 [23 ] 2021 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010081153 10.3390/atmos12030370 [F B010081153] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010081153 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/2021-05/010081153.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2021-05-17 2025-02-24 fdi:010081153 fre