%0 Journal Article
%9 ACL : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture répertoriées par l'AERES
%A Moucha, A.
%A Hanich, L.
%A Tramblay, Yves
%A Saaidi, A.
%A Gascoin, S.
%A Martin, E.
%A Le Page, Michel
%A Bouras, E.
%A Szczypta, C.
%A Jarlan, Lionel
%T Present and future high-resolution climate forcings over semiarid catchments : case of the Tensift (Morocco)
%D 2021
%L fdi:010081153
%G ENG
%J Atmosphere
%K ZONE MEDITERRANEENNE
%K SAFRAN ; MicroMet ; Euro-CORDEX ; regional climate modelling ; Mediterranean ; semiarid ; quantile&#8211 ; quantile ; disaggregation ; climate change ; MODIS snow cover fraction
%K MAROC ; TENSIFT ; ZONE ARIDE ; ZONE SEMIARIDE
%M ISI:000633342500001
%N 3
%P 370 [23 ]
%R 10.3390/atmos12030370
%U https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010081153
%> https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/2021-05/010081153.pdf
%V 12
%W Horizon (IRD)
%X In semiarid areas, the climate is characterized by strong spatiotemporal variability while the meteorological ground network is often very sparse. In this context, the spatial distribution of meteorological variables is thus a real issue for watershed hydrology, agronomy and the study of surface-atmosphere retroaction in these regions. The aim of this study is twofold: (1) to evaluate and to adapt a reanalysis system "Systeme d'Analyse Fournissant des Renseignements Adaptes a la Nivologie" (SAFRAN) to map the meteorological variables on the Tensift catchment (Morocco) between 2004 and 2014; (2) to project temperature and precipitation for the 2041-2060 horizon at high-resolution based on the Euro-CORDEX database at 12 km resolution (using two Representative Concentration Pathway -RCPs- scenarios and four Regional Climate Models), on the SAFRAN reanalysis and on a network of meteorological stations. SAFRAN was assessed: (1) based on leave-one-out for a station located in the plain and another in the mountains; (2) by comparison to another re-analysis system named the Meteorological Distribution System for High-Resolution Terrestrial Modeling (MicroMet); (3) by comparison to in situ measurements of snowfall at one station and to the daily Snow Cover Area derived from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product at the catchment scale. The evaluation of the SAFRAN reanalysis showed that an irregular grid up to 1 km resolution is better for reproducing meteorological variables than the regular version of SAFRAN at 8 km, especially in mountains. The projection of the SAFRAN forcing is conducted in three steps corresponding to the three subsections below: (1) disaggregation of the Euro-CORDEX climate scenarios using the Q-Q approach based on stations data; (2) computation of the spatialized delta-change between historical and future Euro-CORDEX runs after Q-Q correction; (3) futurization of SAFRAN using the spatialized delta change values. The mountainous area is expected to face a higher increase in air temperature than the plains, reaching +2.5 degrees C for RCP8.5 and +1.71 degrees C for RCP4.5 over 2041-2060. This warming will be accompanied by a marked decrease in precipitation (-16% for RCP8.5). These present and future spatialized data sets should be useful for impact studies, in particular those focusing on water resources.
%$ 062 ; 021 ; 020