@article{fdi:010081153,
  title = {{P}resent and future high-resolution climate forcings over semiarid catchments : case of the {T}ensift ({M}orocco)},
  author = {{M}oucha, {A}. and {H}anich, {L}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {S}aaidi, {A}. and {G}ascoin, {S}. and {M}artin, {E}. and {L}e {P}age, {M}ichel and {B}ouras, {E}. and {S}zczypta, {C}. and {J}arlan, {L}ionel},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{I}n semiarid areas, the climate is characterized by strong spatiotemporal variability while the meteorological ground network is often very sparse. {I}n this context, the spatial distribution of meteorological variables is thus a real issue for watershed hydrology, agronomy and the study of surface-atmosphere retroaction in these regions. {T}he aim of this study is twofold: (1) to evaluate and to adapt a reanalysis system "{S}ysteme d'{A}nalyse {F}ournissant des {R}enseignements {A}daptes a la {N}ivologie" ({SAFRAN}) to map the meteorological variables on the {T}ensift catchment ({M}orocco) between 2004 and 2014; (2) to project temperature and precipitation for the 2041-2060 horizon at high-resolution based on the {E}uro-{CORDEX} database at 12 km resolution (using two {R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athway -{RCP}s- scenarios and four {R}egional {C}limate {M}odels), on the {SAFRAN} reanalysis and on a network of meteorological stations. {SAFRAN} was assessed: (1) based on leave-one-out for a station located in the plain and another in the mountains; (2) by comparison to another re-analysis system named the {M}eteorological {D}istribution {S}ystem for {H}igh-{R}esolution {T}errestrial {M}odeling ({M}icro{M}et); (3) by comparison to in situ measurements of snowfall at one station and to the daily {S}now {C}over {A}rea derived from the {M}oderate-{R}esolution {I}maging {S}pectroradiometer ({MODIS}) product at the catchment scale. {T}he evaluation of the {SAFRAN} reanalysis showed that an irregular grid up to 1 km resolution is better for reproducing meteorological variables than the regular version of {SAFRAN} at 8 km, especially in mountains. {T}he projection of the {SAFRAN} forcing is conducted in three steps corresponding to the three subsections below: (1) disaggregation of the {E}uro-{CORDEX} climate scenarios using the {Q}-{Q} approach based on stations data; (2) computation of the spatialized delta-change between historical and future {E}uro-{CORDEX} runs after {Q}-{Q} correction; (3) futurization of {SAFRAN} using the spatialized delta change values. {T}he mountainous area is expected to face a higher increase in air temperature than the plains, reaching +2.5 degrees {C} for {RCP}8.5 and +1.71 degrees {C} for {RCP}4.5 over 2041-2060. {T}his warming will be accompanied by a marked decrease in precipitation (-16% for {RCP}8.5). {T}hese present and future spatialized data sets should be useful for impact studies, in particular those focusing on water resources.},
  keywords = {{ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE} ; {SAFRAN} ; {M}icro{M}et ; {E}uro-{CORDEX} ; regional climate modelling ; {M}editerranean ; semiarid ; quantile&#8211 ; quantile ; disaggregation ; climate change ; {MODIS} snow cover fraction ; {MAROC} ; {TENSIFT} ; {ZONE} {ARIDE} ; {ZONE} {SEMIARIDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{A}tmosphere},
  volume = {12},
  numero = {3},
  pages = {370 [23 ]},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.3390/atmos12030370},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010081153},
}