@article{fdi:010081059,
  title = {{P}rojection of irrigation water demand based on the simulation of synthetic crop coefficients and climate change},
  author = {{L}e {P}age, {M}ichel and {F}akir, {Y}. and {J}arlan, {L}ionel and {B}oone, {A}. and {B}erjamy, {B}. and {K}habba, {S}. and {Z}ribi, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{I}n the context of major changes (climate, demography, economy, etc.), the southern {M}editerranean area faces serious challenges with intrinsically low, irregular, and continuously decreasing water resources. {I}n some regions, the proper growth both in terms of cropping density and surface area of irrigated areas is so significant that it needs to be included in future scenarios. {A} method for estimating the future evolution of irrigation water requirements is proposed and tested in the {T}ensift watershed, {M}orocco. {M}onthly synthetic crop coefficients ({K}-c) of the different irrigated areas were obtained from a time series of remote sensing observations. {A}n empirical model using the synthetic {K}-c and rainfall was developed and fitted to the actual data for each of the different irrigated areas within the study area. {T}he model consists of a system of equations that takes into account the monthly trend of {K}-c the impact of yearly rainfall, and the saturation of {K}-c due to the presence of tree crops. {T}he impact of precipitation change is included in the {K} u estimate and the water budget. {T}he anthropogenic impact is included in the equations for {K}-c. {T}he impact of temperature change is only included in the reference evapotranspiration, with no impact on the {K}-c cycle. {T}he model appears to be reliable with an average r(2) of 0.69 for the observation period (2000-2016). {H}owever, different subsampling tests of the number of calibration years showed that the performance is degraded when the size of the training dataset is reduced. {W}hen subsampling the training dataset to one-third of the 16 available years, r(2) was reduced to 0.45. {T}his score has been interpreted as the level of reliability that could be expected for two time periods after the full training years (thus near to 2050). {T}he model has been used to reinterpret a local water management plan and to incorporate two downscaled climate change scenarios ({RCP}4.5 and {RCP}8.5). {T}he examination of irrigation water requirements until 2050 revealed that the difference between the two climate scenarios was very small (< 2 %), while the two agricultural scenarios were strongly contrasted both spatially and in terms of their impact on water resources. {T}he approach is generic and can be refined by incorporating irrigation efficiencies.},
  keywords = {{ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE} ; {MAROC} ; {HAOUZ} {PLAINE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{H}ydrology and {E}arth {S}ystem {S}ciences},
  volume = {25},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {637--651},
  ISSN = {1027-5606},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.5194/hess-25-637-2021},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010081059},
}