@article{fdi:010080964,
  title = {{C}limate change in the {B}ay of {B}iscay : changes in spatial biodiversity patterns could be driven by the arrivals of southern species},
  author = {{L}e {M}archand, {M}. and {H}attab, {T}. and {N}iquil, {N}. and {A}lbouy, {C}. and {L}e {L}oc'h, {F}ran{\c{c}}ois and {L}asram, {F}. {B}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{U}nder climate change, future species assemblages will be driven by the movements and poleward shift of local species and the arrival of more thermophilic species from lower latitudes. {T}o evaluate the impacts of climate change on marine communities in the {B}ay of {B}iscay, we used the hierarchical filters modelling approach. {M}odels integrated 3 vertical depth layers and considered 2 {I}ntergovernmental {P}anel on {C}limate {C}hange ({IPCC}) scenarios ({R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athway, {RCP}2.6 and {RCP}8.5) and 2 periods (2041-2050 and 2091-2100) to simulate potential future species distributions. {R}esults predicted potentially suitable future ranges for 163 species as well as future arrivals of non-indigenous southern species. {W}e aggregated these results to map changes in species assemblages. {R}esults revealed that coastal areas would undergo the highest species loss among the {B}ay of {B}iscay species, depending on their vertical habitat (benthic, demersal, benthopelagic or pelagic). {B}enthic and demersal species were projected to experience a westward shift, which would induce a deepening of those species. {I}n contrast, pelagic species were projected to shift northward. {T}he potential ecological niche for half of the studied species, mostly benthic and demersal, was projected to decrease under climate change. {I}n addition, a high rate of southern species arrivals is expected (+ 28%). {A}ssessment of community composition showed high species replacement within the 0-50 m isobath, driven by the replacement of native species by southern ones. {T}his could lead to a major reorganization of trophic networks and have socio-economic impacts.},
  keywords = {{C}limate change ; {E}cological niche model ; {H}abitat model ; {H}ierarchical filters ; {S}pecies turnover ; {S}pecies distribution ; {ATLANTIQUE} ; {GASCOGNE} {GOLFE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{M}arine {E}cology {P}rogress {S}eries},
  volume = {647},
  numero = {},
  pages = {17--31},
  ISSN = {0171-8630},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.3354/meps13401},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010080964},
}